France raises non-EU wheat export forecast

Farm office FranceAgriMer on Wednesday increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in 2023/24 due to higher projected sales to China but expressed concerns for the 2024 harvest after heavy rainfall limited sowings.

In a supply and demand outlook, the office pegged non-EU soft wheat exports at 10.2 million metric tons, up from 10.1 million projected last month, and 0.4% above last season’s level.

It cut its forecast for French soft wheat shipments within the EU by a similar volume to 6.69 million tons from 6.79 million, still 4.8% higher than the 2022/23 volume.

China has in recent years become a leading export destination for France, the European Union’s biggest grain producer. This season, Chinese buyers are estimated to have booked between 2 and 2.5 million tons of French milling wheat for shipment between December and March.

FranceAgriMer also sharply cut its estimate of soft wheat use by the starch industry, notably by French group Tereos after a fire halted activities at a factory in northern France.

The cut led to a rise in its forecast of French soft wheat stocks at the end of the 2023/24 season to 3.22 million tons, from 3.06 million forecast last month and 26% up from last season.

For next season, Benoit Pietrement, head of FranceAgriMer’s grain committee, said he feared farm ministry sowing estimates for winter grains would have to be revised downwards.

In its first estimates on Tuesday, the ministry pegged the soft wheat for the 2024 harvest down 5.1% on the previous year, and the winter barley area down 4%.

“It could be far worse than that,” Pietrement told reporters.

Some fields would have to be resown with spring crops, notably spring barley, while the potential of others had already been cut, although some could recover if crop weather was perfect later in the season, he said.

For maize, FranceAgriMer forecast 2023/24 ending stocks at 2.00 million tons, up from 1.86 million estimated last month, after raising its market supplies estimate.

Forecast barley stocks for the end of 2023/24 were revised up to 1.81 million tons from 1.71 million due notably to lower projected exports within the European Union, to Spain in particular.

Tags: export, France, wheat