Forecasts of a decrease in the corn harvest contribute to the growth of prices in Ukraine

According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy of Ukraine, the average yield of early crops in the country will decrease by only 5%, while the yield of late crops will decrease by 15% due to the abnormal heat in most regions.

Last week, temperatures in Ukraine dropped to normal, but precipitation was uneven, so in many regions soil moisture reserves remain low, which leads to drying out of plants and deterioration of soybeans and corn.

During the week, the purchase price of corn of the new harvest for delivery to the port in October-November increased by another 3-5 $/t to 180-185 $/t CPT, which is slightly higher than last year. They are supported by the growth of export prices for feed wheat to 180 $/t CPT port due to the shortage of supply from farmers.

According to the State Customs Service, in 2024/25 MY (as of July 29), Ukraine exported 1.47 mln tonnes of corn (1.1 mln tonnes in the same period last year).

December corn futures in Chicago fell by 0.7% to 162.3 $/t for the week (-2.2% for the month, -25% for the year) amid favorable weather and strong exports from the US.

According to the NASS USDA, in the United States on July 28, the harvest in the test stage formed on 30% of corn crops, which is 8% higher than the 5-year average. The number of corn crops in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 1% to 68% (55% last year).

The US corn exports in 2023/24 MY reached 46.66 mln tonnes, up 34% compared to 2022/23 MY, and will significantly exceed the USDA forecast of 47.7 mln tonnes by the end of the season (August 31).

According to AgRural, in Brazil, as of July 28, the second crop corn was harvested on 91% of the area (55% last year), which allows to increase exports and increases competition on the world market.

During the week on the stock exchange in Paris, the August corn futures fell by 1.8% to 217,25 €/t, and November – by 4.3% to 208 €/t or 192,1 $/t, which is 14% lower than last year.

All this will increase pressure on the prices of black sea corn in the near future.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, Brazil, prices, crop forecast