Forecast of wheat harvest in Romania reduced to below last year’s level

Agritel cut its forecast for Romania’s 2023/24 wheat crop by 15% to 8.76 million tonnes due to a dry period in May-June, resulting in a forecast crop below last season’s also drought-hit season of 9.2 million tons

“The results showed that the drought started when winter wheat was still at a vulnerable stage in its development, affecting both the flowering period and the grain filling period,” Agritel said. Agritel’s forecast for wheat production was based on a projected yield of 4.05 t/ha, 12% below the adjusted 5-year average, and a sown area estimate of 2.17 million ha, slightly higher than last year. The updated forecast predicted that weather conditions would not improve until harvest in early July.

Winter barley and canola in Romania are not expected to be affected by the recent drought as they developed earlier than wheat and yields in 2023 are expected to be average. Corn may be at risk due to planting delays this spring and insufficient moisture, but there is still time in the corn cycle to improve crop conditions.

The high grain harvest in Romania in the new season will lead to a decrease in the possibility of transshipment of Ukrainian grain in the Romanian port of Constanta, which, together with the blocking of exports from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine, will not allow active use of the Danube ports, from which grain is transshipped by small vessels for panamax transshipment in the ports of Romania.

Tags: wheat, crop forecast, Romania