Favorable weather in the main exporting countries will lead to lower prices

In the coming week, mild weather without significant precipitation in the main exporting countries will accelerate the sowing of winter crops, the ripening of late crops and the harvesting of soybeans and corn.

Rains lowered temperatures in the US Corn Belt, but a weeklong heat wave reduced soybean and corn crops by 5% and reduced yield potential. Light rainfall will not improve crop conditions, but moderate temperatures will encourage ripening and an earlier-than-usual start of soybean and corn harvest.

Another front will bring thunderstorms and moderate temperatures to the US Plains, which will improve the condition of late crops and accelerate the start of their harvest.

Spring wheat has been harvested on 74% of the area (77% on average), dry weather next week will allow to complete harvesting and accelerate the sowing of winter wheat.

In the Canadian prairies, rains have halted the harvesting of canola and spring wheat, but dry weather in the next 7-10 days will allow work to be accelerated. As of September 4, spring wheat was harvested on 50% of the area in Saskatchewan, soybeans on 30%, canola on 23%, in Manitoba spring wheat on 70% of the area, canola on 14%, while in Alberta on August 29 spring wheat was harvested on 20% of the area, and canola on only 3.5%.

Recent downpours in Brazil have led to flooding and damage, and the south of the country will experience additional rain in the coming days, increasing excess soil moisture. In the central regions, after moderate rainfall, the first crop of maize has been sown in anticipation of the rainy season, which will begin in mid-September.

In Argentina this week, a rain front replenished soil moisture and eased drought ahead of soybean and corn planting that begins in late September. The intensity of the rains will increase next week, which will improve the prospects for the new soybean crop.

Much of Europe is experiencing dry and hot weather, which is helping the harvest and sowing of winter crops, but reducing the yield potential of soybeans, sunflowers and corn. Next week, a strong rain front will reduce the heat and accelerate the sowing of winter crops.

In Ukraine, rains have reduced temperatures to moderate, which will facilitate the ripening of soybeans, sunflowers and corn, the production of winter rapeseed seedlings and the sowing of winter wheat.

In the south-west of the Russian Federation, dry and hot weather reduces the yield potential of sunflower and corn and delays the sowing of winter wheat. Temperatures will drop next week, but then rise again, which will speed up the harvesting of late crops and the arrival of the new crop to the markets.

In Australia, particularly in the east, a moisture deficit remains, which is not favorable for wheat and canola, but rains are coming in the south-east, which will improve the outlook for the canola and spring barley crops. Local analysts raised their forecast for wheat production, although ABARES lowered official estimates.

Tags: USA, crop condition, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, Russia, grain, Brazil, EU, prices, Canada