Even with rising soybean stocks, USDA report has neutral impact on Chicago

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supply and demand report for June, released last Friday (9), had virtually no impact on futures contracts traded in Chicago. Although the Department slightly raised US stocks for the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons, the absence of changes related to US production and demand for US soybeans in the 2023/24 framework set the neutral tone for the report. The point is that the market is no longer looking at the 2022/23 season, but at the new season instead. Regarding the new season, the big question is about the size of the crop, which is just in early development.

USDA indicated that the US soybean crop must reach 4.510 bln bushels in 2023/24, equivalent to 122.74 mln tons, the same number indicated in May. Yield was indicated at 52 bushels per acre, also unchanged. Despite this, the number was slightly above the average market forecast, which indicated a revision to 4.505 bln bushels. Ending stocks are projected at 350 mln bushels or 9.12 mln tons, up from 335 mln bushels (9.12 mln tons) in May. The market was betting on a carryover of 336 mln bushels (9.14 mln tons). USDA indicated the crush at 2.310 bln bushels (62.87 mln tons) and exports at 1.975 bln bushels (53.75 mln tons), unchanged. For the 2022/23 season, USDA maintained its production estimate at 4.276 bln bushels or 116.38 mln tons. Ending stocks were estimated at 230 bln bushels – 6.27 mln tons, up from 215 bln bushels in May. The market was projecting stocks of 223 bln bushels (6.07 mln tons).

With regard to global production, USDA projected the soybean c ro p in 202 3/24 at 4 10.7 mln tons, compared to 410.59 mln in May. Closing stocks are estimated at 123.34 mln tons, against 1 22.5 mln in May, above market expectations of 121 mln tons. USDA projects the US crop at 12 2.74 mln tons, unchanged, as already mentioned. The Brazilian output was projected at 163 mln tons, the sa me number as in M ay. For Argentina, the forecast is 48 m ln tons, also unchanged. China must import 100 mln tons, the same number projected in May. For the 2022/23 season, USDA estimated a global crop of 369.57 mln tons, against 370.42 mln in May. The estimate for the United States is 116.38 mln tons. Brazil’s crop was projected at 156 mln, and Argentina’s at 25 mln tons. The market was betting on 155.5 mln for Brazil and 24.3 mln for Argentina. Global stocks are estimated at 101.32 mln tons, while the market was betting on 100.4 mln tons.

Tags: US, Production, crop, forecast, yield, stocks, China, output, USDA, Market, Brazil, Argentina, estimate, supply, soybeans, demand