EU wheat recovery stalls due to Black Sea supply

The European Wheat Futures were little altered on Thursday, as the rebound from its four-month low was halted amid fierce export competition due to Black Sea supplies.

The price of front-month wheat for September on Euronext remained unchanged at 215.00 Euros ($234.63) per metric ton.

The contract recovered from the four-month low on Tuesday of 211.50 euro, but was still facing technical resistance due to a chart gap that had been opened following a decline on Monday.

Euronext’s deferred positions ended a little lower.

Chicago wheat eased after a bounce a day earlier petered out.

Egypt and Algeria, who have made large purchases of wheat this week, helped to support the market.

The west European wheat crop was to be left out.

One German trader commented: “It’s encouraging that Algeria and Egypt, the two biggest importers in the world, bought together around 1.5 million tonnes of wheat this week through tenders. That is a large amount to be removed from market supply.”

The low Black Sea prices dampened the optimism, particularly in Algeria’s purchases, as the west EU appeared too expensive to win many sales.

Algeria bought between 700,000 and 750,000 tons Wednesday of wheat with an optional origin. Traders estimated that approximately 550,000 tons were sourced from Russia. 120,000 tons came from Ukraine, while the remainder was sourced from Bulgaria.

On Thursday, the price of Russian protein wheat 11.5% for August Black Sea shipment came to around $207 per ton FOB. The price of Ukrainian 11.5% was at around $215 per ton FOB. This was about $20 cheaper than west EU.

The price of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein was $217-218 per ton FOB. This is also $20 below the west EU prices.

France, which is the EU’s largest wheat exporter was concerned about a lack of demand for exports, even though harvest supplies were expected to shrink.

Sebastien Poncelet, Argus analyst, said: “We will have to start exporting at some point.”

The International Grains Council (IGC), on Thursday, increased its forecast for the 2024/25 global wheat crop. This underscores ample global supplies in the short-term.

The IGC revised its forecast for world corn production, but traders are concerned about weather-related losses in the Black Sea Region, which could impact the wheat market.

Poncelet stated that “the heatwave in the Black Sea area is destroying corn crops, and could be a game changer for the grain markets.”

Tags: price, wheat, crop, futures