EU cuts 2024/25 wheat crop forecast to new four-year low

The European Commission on Thursday cut its forecast for the European Union’s main wheat crop in 2024/25 to a new four-low as it projected a bigger fall in area than previously expected.

In supply and demand data, the Commission pegged usable production of common wheat, or soft wheat, at 120.2 million metric tons, down from 120.8 million in its initial outlook last month and still the lowest since 2020.

Like four years ago, wheat planting in parts of western Europe has been disrupted by heavy rain during autumn and winter.

The Commission nonetheless slightly raised its projection of soft wheat stocks at the end of 2024/25 to 12.2 million tons from 12.1 million, as an increased forecast of supplies left from this season offset the reduced harvest outlook.

For the current 2023/24 season, soft wheat ending stocks were now expected at 20.4 million tons, up 0.5 million from the previous forecast.

That in turn reflected an upward revision to expected EU imports in 2023/24, now seen at 8 million tons against 7.5 million forecast previously.

Wheat imports, which have become a flashpoint in the EU due to an influx of Ukrainian grain, were projected by the Commission to fall to 4.5 million tons in 2024/25.

The Commission left unchanged its forecasts of EU soft wheat exports in 2023/24 and 2024/25 at 31 million tons for both seasons.

Tags: EU, wheat, crop forecast