Early-planted corn yield losses possible as drier pattern sets in

After a mostly favorable first half of November 2021 in the growing regions of Argentina, a more typical La Niña pattern is set to take hold as we close out November and move into December. Southern Brazil, after somewhat favorable rains in October 2021, has since turned drier and this drier pattern is expected to continue, raising concern for crops in this region.

From November 1st through the 15th, this was the 4th wettest front half of a November in 30+ years for the major soybean growing regions of Argentina, according to data from WeatherTrends360. Meanwhile, from the Brazilian states of São Paulo south to Rio Grande do Sul, this was the 7th to 9th driest front half of a November in 30+ years.

Soil moisture that was replenished in the front half of November in Argentina should help to hold over this region at least in the short-term heading into early December 2021. As the effects of La Niña take hold, rainfall will become spotty. Unfortunately, this will happen as some of the early-planted crops enter sensitive pollination phases in December, potentially threatening yields.

For southern Brazil, the situation is a bit more precarious as drier than normal conditions in the front half of November have left much to be desired in terms of soil moisture across the region. Drier than normal conditions are expected through the end of November and, like Argentina, any shower activity will be spotty. Early-planted crops may begin showing signs of stress heading into December as depleted soil moisture provide little support for developing plants.

Farther north across central Brazil, rainfall will continue to run near or above normal through the end of November and into December according to forecasts from WeatherTrends360. There will be far fewer concerns for crops, from a weather perspective, across this region as compared to southern Brazil and Argentina.

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Tags: Brazil, soybean, La Nina, conditions, soil moisture, Argentina