Dry weather in Brazil and Australia remains the main factor affecting agricultural markets

Scientists say that the past few months have been the hottest on record, so 2023 could be the hottest year on record. The El Nino weather phenomenon negatively affects the weather in Australia and Brazil, and worsens the prospects for the future harvest.

According to Australia’s National Bureau of Meteorology, rainfall in October was 65% below normal, the lowest for that month since 2002, and reduced crop yields. Across the country, except for Victoria, October rainfall was below normal, with Western Australia experiencing a record low. Therefore, the wheat harvest may decrease by 35% compared to last year to 26 million tons.

Due to the influence of El Niño, the normal rainy season never started in the central part of Brazil, while the southern regions suffer from excessive rainfall, which worsens the outlook for the soybean harvest. In November, the weather will not change significantly: there will be light rains in the central and northern regions, and downpours will continue in the south, which will negatively affect crops. But it is still difficult to assess possible crop losses.

Irregular rainfall in different parts of Brazil is slowing soybean planting, which could reduce production of second-crop corn, which will see acreage decline if optimal planting times are completed.

In Argentina, rains replenish moisture reserves ahead of soybean and corn planting. Rainfall will continue next week.

The front brought heavy rains to the Midwest and the US Plains, which will promote the development of winter crops. Warm weather next week will allow the soybean and corn harvest to be completed, and the development of the crops will be accelerated.

Periodic rains have been falling for several weeks in Europe, reducing drought conditions in all regions. Higher than normal temperatures favor the vegetation of winter wheat and rapeseed.

Heavy rains will fall in Ukraine and the south-west of the Russian Federation this and next week, which, against the background of higher than normal temperatures, will improve the condition of winter crops before wintering.

Tags: Ukraine, Brazil, EU, USA, crop condition, Argentina