Drought, War in Ukraine Put Pressure on Morocco’s Wheat Supply

Faced with drought and increasing global food and fuel prices caused by the war in Ukraine, Morocco is under pressure to meet domestic demand for wheat and other key commodities.

So far in 2022, Ukraine has only planted 20% of its expected spring crops, This results from the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia.

Quickly after the launch of the war, much of the international community sided with Ukraine and condemned the aggression. Beyond material and human losses, the global markets have been hit with rising fuel and food prices as Ukraine and Russia are major exporters of wheat, fertilizers, and energy.

“2022/23 wheat production projected fractionally lower year/year, with anticipated declines in Australia, Ukraine, Morocco, China, and North Africa outweighing gains elsewhere. Difficult weather and reduced fertilizer use may contribute to below-trend yields,” the International Grains Council tweeted on Thursday.

The MENA region is one of the main areas where the new global trend hits close to home. A prominent example of the region’s reliance on Russian and Ukrainian wheat is Egypt, which imports 80% of its needs from the two countries.

In such a context, Ukraine’s deputy minister of agrarian policy and food Taras Vysotskyi called on Thursday for the Ukrainian exportation of food to the Middle East and North Africa “to avoid food shortages in the region.”

An expected drop in Ukrainian wheat production
With only 20% of its expected agricultural area planted, Ukraine is expecting a significant drop of up to 70% in sowing for spring crops in areas of intense conflict.

“The most difficult situation is in the temporarily occupied regions and where active hostilities continue: Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson,” said Vysotskyi.

The issue extends to Northern territories that require de-mining before the planting of the spring crops.

With the Ukrainian agriculture sector heavily impacted by the ongoing war, Russia might benefit from this shift by partially meeting the increasing demand for its wheat.

Read Also: Brazil Looks to Morocco Amid Dire Fertilizer Shortage

“Global demand is not going anywhere. If Ukraine’s ports remain closed, part of the demand will switch to Russia. But if there is a peace agreement, Ukraine will start supplying very quickly,” the head of consultancy firm Sovecon Andrey Sizov told Reuters on Thursday.

In the 2022-2023 season, Russian wheat exports are estimated to reach 41 million tonnes, compared to 33.9 million tonnes in the current season, added Sizov.

In case Ukrainian ports resume operation, Ukrainian wheat exports are expected to reach 20 million tonnes for the 2022-2023 season, he noted.

Even countries that produce wheat, such as Morocco, remain relatively reliant on wheat imports, particularly in times of drought.

As Morocco recorded more than 70% drop in wheat and barley production in the 2022-2023 agricultural season, the country has to rely on imports to meet consumers’ needs.

In such a context, Moroccan wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia count for 24% of its total wheat imports.

“We are facing a crisis that involves many factors that we cannot control. The government is sparing no effort to monitor the situation and deal with the problem by any means possible,” Morocco’s Minister of Agriculture Mohammed Sadiki said earlier this month.

Faced with uncertainty, Morocco decided to push the wheat stockpile beyond the 5-month reserve.

Indian wheat further provides an alternative to Morocco’s current crisis. In April, India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Exports Development Authority (APEDA) was set to send trade delegations to numerous countries such as Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, and Lebanon to discuss the potential of increasing Indian wheat exports to the region.

The decision came as India increased its wheat exports target from 7 million tons in 2021 to 10 million tons in 2022.

Tags: domestic demand, Ukraine, Russia, prices, Production, wheat, drought, yields, spring crops, Morocco, food