Corn up 5¢. Thursday, May 23, 2024

July corn is up 5¢ this morning.

July soybeans are up 2¾¢.

CBOT wheat is up 8¼¢. KC wheat is up 10¼¢. Minneapolis wheat is up 6¢.

“Grain and oilseed prices continue to find good support on the breaks, with the primary story with legs under it being adverse weather in the Black Sea region,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX. “Dry weather is expected to stress 50% of Russia’s wheat by early June, with stress expanding during that time period to 75% of Ukraine. Together, these two warring countries are expected to account for a third of world wheat exports.

“The story gets even more intriguing now with stories emerging from Russia that authorities there are warning that adverse weather could increase food inflation risks. Russian President Vladimir Putin has his hands full trying to maintain domestic support for his war against Ukraine. He doesn’t need food inflation to increase social unrest. So, the question then becomes, do we see Russian production fall low enough to cause Putin to restrict exports to contain food inflation risks at home? That has the potential to dramatically alter world wheat trade.

“June is the critical month for the development of the wheat crop in Russia and in Ukraine. A change in the pattern could still gain back much of the lost yield, but continuation of the pattern could see losses intensify. Forecasters currently call for the pattern to continue into at least early June.”

This morning USDA released the weekly Export Sales report. Corn, soybean, and wheat sales for the 2023/2024 marketing year for the week ending May 16 all fell within the expected range.

“Corn export sales for 2023/2024 to date totaled 1.94 billion bushels, up 29.7% from a year earlier,” says The Brock Report. “… The export sales total looks negative for soybean prices. Soybean export sales for 2023/2024 to date totaled roughly 1.576 billion bushels, down 15.7% from a year earlier.”

Live cattle are up 3¢. Feeder cattle are down 20¢. Lean hogs are up 8¢.

July crude oil is up 49¢.

The U.S. Dollar Index June contract is down to 104.83.

S&P 500 futures are up one point. Dow futures are down 258 points.

Tags: live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs, corn, soybeans, wheat, futures