Corn prices pending the USDA report remain under pressure from improving US weather and harvesting in Brazil

Increased acreage and improved U.S. corn conditions have dampened speculative corn demand in recent weeks, and traders are now awaiting an updated balance sheet from the USDA.

Against the backdrop of two weeks of rain, the number of U.S. corn in good or excellent condition rose 4% for the week from 51% to 55% (64% last year), the 7th worst on record for this time period.

Thunderstorms are expected in the central Midwest this week, but Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Illinois remain in short supply.

Ahead of the USDA’s July report, analysts released their own estimates. They expect the US corn crop forecast to be lowered to 386.95 million tonnes (348.7 million tonnes in FY 2022/23) from the June report, despite an increase in planted area, as yields decline from 11.38 to 11. 08 t/ha (10.87 t/ha in 2022/23 MR).

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, December corn futures rose 1.4% to $197.4/t from Monday, although they were down 9.7% for the month after a sharp increase in the US seeded area forecast in the June report.

According to AgRural data, in Brazil, as of July 6, safrinha corn was harvested on 27% of the area, although 41% of the area was threshed during this period last year. Against the background of favorable weather, AgRural experts increased the forecast for the production of corn of the second crop by 5 million tons to 102.9 million tons.

The ANEC agency predicts that in July Brazil will increase corn exports compared to June from 1.23 to 6.34 million tons, which will exceed the July 2023 figure of 5.63 million tons.

Demand prices for Ukrainian corn for delivery to Danube ports remain at $170-173/t, however, due to the completion of the grain corridor, demand from Asian countries, which prefer to purchase Brazilian corn, has decreased to a minimum.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, Brazil, prices, USA