Corn closes higher. Thursday, March 10, 2022

At the close Thursday, CME Group corn ended higher with wheat closing sharply lower.

The May corn contract settled 22¾¢ higher at $7.55¾. July futures closed 17¾¢ higher at $7.26. December futures finished 15¢ higher at $6.51¾.

May soybean futures ended 14½¢ higher at $16.86¼.

July soybean futures finished 16¼¢ higher at $16.59½. New-crop November soybean futures closed 18½¢ higher at $14.92¼.

May wheat futures settled 1.14½¢ lower at $10.87.

May soymeal futures ended $9.00 per short ton higher at $483.70.

May soy oil futures closed 0.53¢ higher at 74.68¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $2.19 per barrel lower (-2.01%) at $106.51, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 212 points lower (-0.64) at 33,074.

At midsession Thursday, CME Group corn is strengthening while wheat retreats further.

The May corn contract are 27¼¢ higher at $7.60¼. July futures are 19¾¢ higher at $7.28. December futures are 14¼¢ higher at $6.51.

May soybean futures are 21¾¢ higher at $16.93½.

July soybean futures are 21¾¢ higher at $16.65. New-crop November soybean futures are 17¼¢ higher at $14.91.

May wheat futures are 84¼¢ lower at $11.17¼. Earlier in the day the contract was approaching the expanded $1.30 limit by trading at about $1.00.

May soymeal futures are $12.20 per short ton higher at $486.90.

May soy oil futures are 068 higher at 74.83¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $0.05 per barrel higher (+0.05%) at $108.75, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 317 points lower (-0.96%) at 32,968.

In trading today, corn has been helped by positive export reports and higher domestic usage in Wednesday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, says Don Roose of U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa.

“I think that’s giving us a little strength,” he said of the weekly export sales report on corn, which is a marketing year high.

In the WASDE report, USDA increased its U.S. corn export estimate by 75 million metric tons (mmt.) and ethanol use by 25 mmt. Ethanol plants currently are running with a positive margin of 25¢ to 30¢ per gallon, Roose says.

Soybean prices got a boost today from an 11% cut in the Brazilian crop size estimate by CONAB (the Portuguese acronym for Brazilian National Company of Supply). The CONAB projection of 122.7 mmt is under the WASDE number of 127 mmt.

Wheat is under pressure from technical and fundamental drivers, says Roose.

“We had a technical key reversal,” Roose says. After the May Chicago wheat contract hit an all-time high of $13.63½ on March 8, it settled below the previous day’s close.

In yesterday’s WASDE report USDA cut its projection for world wheat trade by 3.7 mmt, driven in part by lower estimates for Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S.

“They’re saying that world trade is going to be less,” Roose says.

USDA also cut its estimates of wheat imports to Egypt and North Africa.

“Some of these depressed countries only have so much money to spend on food,” Roose says.

In early trading Thursday, CME Group corn and soybean futures are higher.

The May corn contract is 14¢ higher at $7.47. July futures are 12¼¢ higher at $7.20½. December futures are 9¢ higher at $6.45¾.

May soybean futures are 21¼¢ higher at $16.93.

July soybean futures are 21¼¢ higher at $16.64½. New-crop November soybean futures are 15½¢ higher at $14.89¼.

May wheat futures are 26¢ lower at $11.75¼.

May soymeal futures are $9.50 per short ton higher at $484.20.

May soy oil futures are 1.29¢ higher at 75.44¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the crude oil market is $3.67 per barrel higher (+3.38%) at $112.37, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 343 points lower (-1.03%) at 32,929.

Separately, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday once again shows strong demand.

Corn = 2.167 million metric tons (mmt.), old and new crop. The 2.14 mmt old crop number is a marketing year high, according to USDA. It was also well above the trade’s expectations of 1.1 mmt.
Soybeans = 2.24 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectation of 1.6 mmt.
Wheat = 370,200 metric tons (mt.), old and new crop. The old crop number of 307,200 mt was in line with trade expectations of 300,000 mt.
Soybean meal = 317,100 mt., about double the previous week’s number.
Also on Thursday morning, according to USDA, private exporters reported the following activity:

100,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to Colombia during the 2021/2022 marketing year
20,000 metric tons of soybean oil for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2021/2022 marketing year
Al Kluis of Kluis Commodity Advisors views yesterday’s USDA supply and demand report as positive.

“The corn and soybean numbers in the USDA are long-term positive for price,” he says in a note to clients this morning. “Once wheat starts to rebound, expect corn and soybeans to take over leadership on the upside.”

“On Wednesday the wheat market locked limit down,” Kluis adds. “This put pressure on corn and soybeans as well. The USDA reports were viewed as bearish because they were not bullish. The USDA did not make the large changes in production and ending stocks projections the trade had expected, which is usually the case.”

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