Continuous rise in temperature weighs on crop conditions in US

Above average temperature continues to raise concern over condition and yield of crop such as corn and soybean in the US, as many regions in the country witnessed warmer temperature even with record monthly temperatures 4 F or more above normal.

Much of the southern Delta, upper Midwest, Southwest and West noted below-normal July rainfall. A Central US heat ridge is favored on models through the end of August and likely into September as well.

Dry weather accompanied building heat in the Pacific Northwest. Weekly temperatures averaged 5 F above normal at a few locations along the northern Pacific Coast. Farther south, readings broadly averaged at least 5-10 F above normal.

Precipitation is likely be nonexistent for most of the middle of the country, making it very stressful for filling crops and forages. Some of these areas have seen very good and above-normal rainfall over the last several weeks, but limited soil moisture will quickly be used up by plants over the next couple of weeks.

Despite some of the heaviest rainfall in the Northeast and portions of the mid-South and interior Southeast, rain bypassed several areas including parts of northern Corn Belt.

Heatwave was seen expanding eastward from the Pacific Coast States earlier this week as Aug. 14 was the hottest August day on record in Troutdale and Portland, the USDA said.

“The hot weather is promoting fieldwork and small grain harvesting in the Northwest, but reducing topsoil moisture,” the USDA noted. Over the coming week, a dry pattern is expected across much of the US.

Record-shattering heat over the southern Plains and the Gulf Coast region maintained significant stress on rangeland, pastures and immature summer crops, as well as poultry and livestock.

US Plains, western Corn Belt and mid-South are expected to be covered with completely dry weather in the upcoming week.

Platts assessed CIF New Orleans Corn at $205.15/mt and soybeans at $523.41/mt on Aug. 16, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights data.

Brazil has had a good second crop harvest so far, supported by decent weather conditions. The harvest was 72.4% completed as of Aug. 14, according to Conab.

In Parana, harvest progress is limited and lagging due to massive rains reported in the week ended Aug 14. High moisture was reported by Conab in MatoGrosso do Sul, whereas the State of Goiás saw low-humid conditions.

According to Agrometeorological forecasts, rainfall volumes greater than 50 mm are expected in the Northwest Amazonas and South Roraima over the next week.

In the Southeast, the weather is expected to remain stable and without rain in the entire region. This will favor the maturation of cotton, corn, beans, sorghum and wheat crops.

The weather conditions may turn unstable in Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro from Aug. 18. In the southern parts of Brazil, dry weather and lack of rain is forecast following Aug. 18.

Platts assessed Brazil Corn FOB Santos at $220.26/mt on Aug. 16.

Dry and mild weather spurred growth of emerging winter grains in Argentina, while moisture remained limited in several parts of the region, the USDA reported Aug. 15.

Between Aug. 6 and Aug. 12, the capital city saw scattered light showers, while in the far northeast, mostly dry weather prevailed in major agricultural regions.

According to the government of Argentina, 94% of corn crops were harvested as of Aug. 10, which is consistent on the year.

Frosts were reported over the weekend in several regions as soil moisture remains sub-optimal. Below-average temperatures are expected over the coming week, with showers forecast to fall in Buenos Aires around Aug. 17.

Platts assessed Argentina Corn FOB Up River at $215.16/mt on Aug. 16.

Most of Europe is likely to see lower rainfall during the next two weeks, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts said Aug. 16.

Europe is also likely to see a rise in temperatures during the next fortnight which may compensate for the impact of the heatwave, the agency said.

Poor rainfall and high temperatures are expected during the next two weeks and are likely to weigh on EU’s crop yields, according to the agency.

Crop yields in the ongoing harvests of corn and wheat, among other cereals, may be adversely impacted.

The European Commission forecast in its June update that EU cereal production in marketing year 2023-24 (July-June) would be 276 million mt, against 280.5 million mt seen in the previous estimate.

Platts assessed EU wheat with 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $245/mt Aug. 16, according to S&P Global data.

Most parts of Australia are likely to remain extremely dry over the next two weeks, the country’s Bureau of Meteorology said in a forecast Aug. 16. Poor rainfall is expected over most of the country during the next two weeks.

Western Australia and New South Wales are key wheat suppliers and poor showers there could impact crop yields.

Temperatures are likely to be above normal across Western Australia and New South Wales during the next two weeks, according to the bureau.

Poor rainfall along with rising temperatures are likely to impact crop productivity, including wheat, in most parts of the country, trade participants said.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has forecast marketing year 2023-24 (October-September) wheat harvest at around 26.2 million mt, down 34% year on year, which is expected to weigh on exports.

Platts assessed FOB Australian Premium White wheat lower on the day at $298/mt Aug. 16, S&P Global data showed.

Preliminary reports of hot and dry weather forecasts in Indonesia are raising concerns that palm oil production at the world’s largest vegetable oil exporter may see a reduction in the current year.

Indonesia is expecting a longer dry season due to El Nino weather patterns increasing the threat of forest fires, the country’s disaster agency BNPB said Aug. 14, adding that this year’s dry season is expected to be the most severe since 2019.

Australia’s weather bureau said an El Nino weather event is likely to hit between September to November on Aug. 8.

During the 2014-2016 El Nino period, below average precipitation in Indonesia and Malaysia saw palm oil prices climbing up in the fourth quarter of 2015 and peaking in 2016, BMI, a Fitch Solutions company said Aug. 16.

Platts assessed crude palm oil FOB Indonesia at $870/mt on Aug. 16, down 5% from the start of the month.

Tags: yield, Australia, Argentina, harvest, second crop, corn, summer crops, condition, average temperature, Brazil, EU, soybean, US, crop, dry weather