Conab left the forecast of soybean crop in Brazil at a much lower level than USDA

Brazilian agency Conab in its August report left the forecast of soybean harvest in the country in MY 2023/24 at 147.38 mln tonnes, which is 4.7% lower than in MY 2022/23. At the same time, USDA in August left the forecast of soybean production in Brazil in MY 2023/24 at 153 million tons, and in MY 2024/25 – at 169 million tons.

The forecast of soybean exports in MY 2023/24 Conab experts left at 92.4 million tons, while USDA increased by 2 to 105 million tons compared to 96 million tons in MY 2022/23.

Conab experts believe that in MY  2023/24 the grain production in Brazil will decrease by 21.2 mln tonnes to 298.6 mln tonnes compared to the previous season, primarily due to the decrease in the average crop yields, the impact of unfavorable climatic conditions on the development of the first crops, in particular from the beginning of sowing to the reproduction phases of crops.

On the areas sown in September-October in the Central-Western, Southeastern and Matopibsky regions, high temperatures and low precipitation led to over-sowing and reduced plant productivity, while late crops did not experience such situations.

According to Crop Progress, the second crop corn has been harvested on 90% of the area, and the production is estimated at 90.28 mln tons. Yields varied significantly this season, depending on the technical package used and mainly on the timing of sowing. Crops sown at the ideal time, i.e. from January to mid-February, had yields in line with expectations and even higher than those recorded in the last harvest, primarily due to regular rainfall during the growing season. The exceptions were the states of Parana, São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul, where dry spells in March and April, coupled with high temperatures and pest attacks, reduced yield potential.

Amid the decline in yields, the area under corn also decreased, both in the second and first harvest, so the total corn production in Brazil in MY 2023/24 will decrease by 12.3% compared to the previous season to 115.65 mln tonnes, which is significantly lower than the USDA forecasted 122 mln tonnes.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast