Coceral cuts EU 27 soft wheat production forecast to last year’s level

Coceral lowered the forecast for the production of soft wheat in the EU-27 to 127.3 million tons from 129.5 million tons in the March forecast, which is 0.3% more year-on-year. The forecast for barley has been adjusted to 49.47 million tons, which is 4.6% less than last season. The corn crop was revised up to 61.1 million tons compared to March forecasts of 62.1 million tons.

Coceral noted that the reason for the decrease is dry weather in the northern part of the EU, especially in Sweden, Denmark and the Baltic countries. The estimate of the wheat harvest in France is 35.06 million tons, which is 4% more than last year. Wheat production forecasts for Germany and Spain have been lowered due to late rains.

The EU-27 maize crop was revised up to 61.1 million tonnes from March forecasts of 62.1 million tonnes, but still higher than in 2022. The increase in the forecast is due to improved maize performance in Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and Italy after the dry year of 2022.

The overall cereal production forecast for the EU-27 is 273.4 million tonnes, compared with 280.1 million tonnes in the March forecast, but well above the 266.8 million tonnes harvested in 2022. Forecasts for oilseeds include 19.7 million tons of canola, 10.8 million tons of sunflower and 3.12 million tons of soybeans.

The state of soft wheat crops in France has worsened due to dry weather in agricultural regions. As of June 5, only 88% of crops were estimated to be in good to excellent condition, down from previous weeks. Indicators of winter and spring barley and corn in good condition also decreased.

The share of corn in the EU harvest is divided between countries. According to estimates, the largest rapeseed crop will be harvested in France and Germany, where production is expected to be 4.43 million tons and 4.65 million tons, respectively. FranceAgriMer monitoring showed that the state of soft wheat crops in France is deteriorating for the second week in a row due to dry weather. Despite this, the current indicators significantly exceed the level of the previous year and remain close to the maximum values registered in 2011.

Tags: corn, EU, wheat, crop forecast