China increases soybean imports

The recovery of demand for soybean meal and oil in China will lead to the increase of soybean imports in 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 seasons, according to the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA (FAS USDA).

It is expected that the lifting of restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic, the decline in world prices due to the record soybean harvest in Brazil and a slight increase in the pig and poultry production in China will lead to an increase in the consumption of soybean meal and demand for soybeans.

According to the forecasts of FAS USDA, in the current season, which will end on September 30, China will import 98.0 mln tonnes of soybeans, and in the next season – 98.5 mln tonnes. In 2021/2022 season, the imports totaled only 91.6 mln tonnes.

As stated in the Document No. 1 on the agricultural development strategy, China continues to develop “diversification of agricultural imports”, finding opportunities to expand the list of trading partners. The implementation of this policy has not yet led to a consistent or significant increase in imports from countries that were not previously included in the list of major oilseed suppliers (Brazil, USA, Argentina, and Canada). However, imports of soybeans from Russia and Kazakhstan increased significantly.

The growth in demand for soybeans in the next season will be filled not only by imports, but also by increasing domestic production. FAS USDA predicts that China will harvest 19.8 mln tonnes of soybeans in 2023/2024 season, which is 0.4 mln tonnes more than in the current season. The soybean area for the 2023 harvest was expanded by 2%, as the Chinese government encourages soybean cultivation instead of corn, the use of marginal lands and the use of compacted cropping technology (simultaneous cultivation of soybeans and other crops on the same area).

Tags: China, soybean, imports, crop forecast