Cereal harvest bonanza on the cards for Kazakhstan

This year’s winter and spring cereal harvest in Kazakhstan is set to be the biggest in 13 years, with a warmer and wetter-than-average autumn and winter laying a solid foundation. Above-average rainfall across most of the country’s major cropping areas in spring and early summer cemented the potential, with yield forecasts for wheat and barley currently well in excess of the 5-year average.

The start of summer was warmer than usual throughout Kazakhstan, with dry conditions building in central and southern regions. Nevertheless, the production outlook has held up well due to the good soil moisture profile built up in the spring. The western regions have experienced unusually wet summer conditions, ideal for crop development.

In the oblasts that comprise the North Kazakhstan macro region, the country’s primary spring cereal growing area, timely planting and an adequate soil moisture profile ensured ideal conditions for emergence and crop establishment. Planting commenced in mid-April, reached full speed in May and finished around June 10. Favourable temperatures and replenishing rainfall led to quick canopy expansion and unusually high leaf area index and biomass accumulation values.

The above-average soil-moisture levels promise sustained growth during the flowering period. However, adequate water supply and mild temperatures will be needed during the grain-fill period to realise the very high yield potential. The spring cereal yield forecasts in the European Commission’s latest, July 8, JRC MARS crop monitoring bulletin are well above the 5-year average and nearly 50 percent above last season’s poor, drought-affected levels.

In the South Kazakhstan macro region, where winter wheat is the most important cereal crop, the seeding campaign started in mid-September and progressed well, notwithstanding numerous rainfall events. Germination and emergence were supported by favourably mild thermal and moist topsoil conditions in October and November. Wheat entered the winter dormancy period in good condition, and no significant winter-kill events were reported, despite several harsh but short cold events in mid-December and mid-February.

The grain-fill period for the winter wheat crop is now largely complete, and in the warmer parts of the region, the ripening phase is well advanced. The yield forecast for winter wheat is very positive on the back of advanced phenological development and above-average biomass accumulation, putting this year’s production outlook significantly higher than historical trend levels.

The sowing of spring cereals progressed well in South Kazakhstan, starting in late March and was largely completed by the end of April. Spring wheat and barley emerged in good order, reaching the tillering phase in May and flowering in June. Spring cereals are now in the grain-fill phase and generally in good condition.

Sowing spring cereals in the oblasts of East Kazakhstan commenced in early May and, despite frequent rain delays, concluded around midway through June. Satellite imagery observations suggest the crop is in very good condition, with yield expectations well above the 5-year average. However, a heatwave toward the end of June just as the crop was about to flower could have some yield consequences.

The country’s last major cropping macro region is Northwest Kazakhstan, where weather and soil temperature conditions allowed spring planting to commence in the last decade of April. Below-average temperatures in May hindered crop establishment, and a heatwave in June has taken the gloss off yield expectations, especially in oblasts with a below-average soil moisture profile. Nonetheless, yield forecasts remain above the 5-year mean.

According to the JRC MARS, the total area planted to wheat for the 2024 harvest is 12.76 million hectares (Mha), down 2.8pc from the 13.13Mha harvested in 2023 but 5.5pc above the 5-year average of 12.1Mha. Spring wheat accounts for 12.17Mha and winter wheat the 590,000ha balance, 95.4 and 4.6pc of the total area respectively.

The average yield forecast currently stands at 1.33t/ha, 45pc higher than the 2023 harvest yield of 0.92t/ha and 24pc higher than the 5-year mean of 1.07t/ha. This season’s winter wheat area is expected to average 1.99t/ha, and the spring wheat harvest 1.3t/ha.

This puts the JRC MARS wheat output forecast for Kazakhstan at 16.95Mt, up 40pc from the 2023 harvest of 12.1Mt and 31pc higher than the 5-year average of 12.95Mt. At 15.78Mt, spring wheat makes up 93.1pc of the total, while winter wheat is a minor player at just 1.17Mt or 6.9pc of the total.

The area dedicated to barley production in Kazakhstan this season is 2.3Mha, 5.3pc lower than the 2.42Mha planted last year and 13.8pc below the 5-year-average of 2.66Mha. Spring planted barley makes up 99.7pc of the total. The average yield forecast currently sits at 1.52t/ha, 40.7 and 21.6pc higher than last season’s average of 1.08t/ha and the 5-year average of 1.25t/ha, respectively.

The JRC MARS report pegged Kazakhstan’s barley production at 3.48Mt, 33.4pc higher than the 2023 harvest of 2.61Mt, and 5pc higher than the 3.32Mt average of the past five seasons. Spring barley makes up 99.5pc of that output projection.

As of July 1, Kazakhstan’s grain and pulse reserves stood at 6.16Mt, against 7.84Mt a month earlier and 6.57Mt on the same date last year. Wheat stocks were 5.02Mt, down from 5.35Mt on July 1, 2023, 4Mt of which is food grade. Barley stocks stood at 790,000t at the start of the month against 870,000t on 1 July 2023.

With a large harvest now on the cards, concern is growing around the availability of adequate, hygienic storage to segregate the new crop harvest. According to the government, the country has a grain storage capacity of 30Mt, which includes 13.4Mt managed by 191 licensed grain-receiving enterprises and an additional 16.6Mt held by agricultural producers. At a recent government-convened meeting of key industry participants, the Ministry of Agriculture emphasised the importance of organisational preparedness at the regional level, particularly in ensuring grain acceptance and adequate drying capacities to prevent potential weather-related complications.

The meeting also looked at accelerating grain exports, particularly to China by rail. In 2021, 350,000t was exported to China; in 2023, that grew to 750,000t, and last year, it was almost 2.5 times higher again at 2.2Mt. In the first half of 2024, shipments totalled 760,000t, and the second-half program is expected to be at least 1.25Mt.

Tags: crop, forecast, yield, cereal, harvest, spring cereal, Kazakhstan, barley, winter wheat, Outlook, Production, wheat