Canadian farmers expected to plant less canola, same wheat area

Canadian farmers will plant 3% less canola and the same area of wheat as last year, government agency Statistics Canada reported on Monday.

WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

Canada is the world’s fourth-largest wheat exporter and the largest canola exporter. Dry conditions have raised concerns about yield in the western Prairies.

Canola and wheat prices have weakened this year, however, due to big supplies of soybeans and corn.

BY THE NUMBERS

In its first 2024 planting report, StatsCan estimated all-wheat plantings at 27 million acres, the same as last year. Traders and analysts surveyed by Reuters estimated, on average, 26.7 million acres.

Within the all-wheat category, spring wheat area looks to decline 1% while sowings of durum, used to make pasta, rise 5%, StatsCan said.

Farmers will sow 21.4 million acres of canola, down from last year due to lower prices and dryness concerns, Statistics Canada said. The average trade estimate was 21.6 million acres.

ICE Canada November canola futures RSX4 rose slightly.

Statistics Canada issued the report earlier than usual as it also conducted its farmer survey earlier, in December. Previously, the survey took place in March and StatsCan released estimates in late April.

Many farmers make final planting decisions in January or later for at least some of their land.

Most planting happens in late April and May.

“It was interesting that farmers in December were already looking at trimming their canola acres, clearly a response to the price,” said Ed Broschinski, lead analyst for MarketSense, Cargill Canada’s CARG.UL grain advisory service.

Farmers’ interest in planting durum may have cooled since the December survey as prices have weakened, he said.

Canada’s estimates are unlikely to sway global wheat sentiment, as a drop-off in Canadian spring wheat plantings may be offset by a larger Kansas wheat crop, Broschinski said.

Tags: Canada, wheat, rapeseed