Canadian farmers decide to seed more wheat, but unlikely to fill global supply gap

Canada, a major wheat exporter, recently said its wheat area has risen to the highest in a decade. But given uncertainties, such as weather, its production rise and potential to ease the global food crisis may be limited.

Nationally, farmers reported planting 25.4 million acres of wheat in 2022, up 8.7 percent from 2021, according to the 2022 June Field Crop Survey of about 25,000 farms, Canada’s national statistical office said.

Specifically, the spring wheat area rose by 10.5 percent to 18.2 million acres, and durum wheat rose by 8.6 percent to 6 million acres. Winter wheat, grown predominantly in eastern Canada, decreased by 12.7 percent to 1.2 million acres.

However, unpredictable weather throughout the year impacts when wheat is harvested and how much of the crop is useable, so the additional acres may not necessarily yield higher production.

“Canada can’t easily bridge gaps in global food supplies,” as the Ukraine crisis, the pandemic and the energy shock “have thrown the global food system into disarray,” wrote Benjamin Richardson, Royal Bank of Canada researcher.

Barriers to producing more food are related to climate and terrain, and expanding farms involves costly undertakings to prepare the land, acquire new supplies and install irrigation systems, Richardson said.

In 2021 summer, prairie wheat farmers in western Canada, where most wheat is grown, endured their worst drought in almost two decades.

Due to record-high temperatures, combined with little rain, the yield in 2021 decreased by 38.1 percent from 2020 to 31.6 bushels per acre, the lowest wheat yield in two decades, according to the national statistical office.

As a result, Canadian wheat production in 2021 fell by 38.5 percent from 2020 to 21.7 million tonnes, or an annual loss of 14 million tonnes, and exports were down 44 percent.

Dry summers can stunt the growth of crops and therefore hurt yields.

Farmers this year are hoping for less heat and more rain than in 2021. Unfortunately, wheat farmers in some areas have contended with more rain than usual this spring and a large dump of snow that has delayed seeding.

Richardson said what Canada, a top player in the global fertilizer market, can do is to “help ensure the situation isn’t made worse” by filling another critical gap in fertilizers, as Canada’s fertilizer industry still has room to grow and may help sustain crop yields in other countries.

Russia and Ukraine were major producers of agricultural commodities, with a combined share of around 30 percent of global wheat exports, Boubaker Ben Belhassen, spokesperson of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, said on June 10, warning that the Ukraine crisis has had a significant impact on the global food markets and could leave an additional 11 to 19 million people with chronic hunger.

Tags: Canada, Production, wheat, yield, durum wheat, exporter, spring wheat, harvest, global food crisis, planting, weather, winter wheat