Canada will be in an advantageous position in the event of a possible Russian ban on durum wheat exports

Canada could soon have one less competitor in what is becoming a tight durum market.

That news combined with lingering dryness in North Africa has MarketsFarm analyst Bruce Burnett advising growers to hold on to their durum.

“With the tightening durum situation, you’ll probably see better prices here over the next little while,” he said.

Prices have already started to climb, rising 25 to 50 cents per bushel in some locations for the week ended Nov. 3.

Bids were in the $12.50 to $13 range following the Russia news.

But they could climb higher because of lingering drought in North Africa where this year’s production was down 14 percent in Algeria and 18 percent in Tunisia compared to last year.

Production rebounded 75 percent in Morocco but that was because the previous year was a disaster.

“It’s a very long planting window that they have. They can plant into January, so we’ll have to see,” said Burnett.

“It probably behooves you to wait for that a little bit.”

The European Union also had a disappointing crop of 7.04 million tonnes, which is 7.5 percent below the previous five-year average.

While Burnett is preaching patience, he noted that today’s prices are still attractive and the premium over spring wheat is wide, so he wouldn’t discourage a farmer who needs the cash to sell some durum.

So why is Russia putting on the brakes after being such an active player in the durum market during the opening months of the 2023-24 campaign?

The country has shipped 400,000 tonnes of the crop primarily to Italy, Turkey and Tunisia so far in 2023-24, SovEcon said.

Russia sent 278,472 tonnes to the European Union between July 1 and October 23, according to data supplied by Rossella Polito, an Italian durum farmer who posts as @spiga_dorata on the X social media platform.

That ranks second behind Turkey’s 366,662 tonnes but ahead of Canada’s 104,460 tonnes for that period.

Burnett surmised that Russia’s pasta manufacturers requested the export ban because much of the country’s durum suffered quality damage due to harvest rains and they don’t want to be left with the “crap.”

Kazakhstan’s crop also suffered quality damage, so Black Sea durum supplies are limited.

Turkey’s surprisingly large export program is also winding down, according to Mercantile Consulting Venture.

Mercantile expects the country to ship 1.2 to 1.4 million tonnes of durum this year compared to the usual volume of about 200,000 tonnes.

Turkey has already exported about one million tonnes of that, Mercantile stated in a recent article written for SaskWheat.

Burnett said the burden will soon fall on Canada to supply the world market until the new harvest begins in North Africa and the European Union.

There is not a lot of Canadian durum in the grain handling system. There are 36,000 tonnes in Vancouver, 100,000 tonnes in Thunder Bay and 70,000 tonnes in the St. Lawrence Seaway.

“Those aren’t huge quantities,” said Burnett.

“The stocks in Vancouver are enough to fill half a boat.”

He thinks grain companies are going to have to start pulling durum into the system to meet the winter demand for the crop.

That bodes well for prices, but Burnett warns that durum is evolving into a special crops type market where price hikes may only be happening at certain companies or even specific locations.

In other words, it pays to shop around.

Tags: Russia, EU, prices, Canada, durum wheat