Canada releases price forecast for major crops

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) released its forecast for 2024/25 MY (which started on August 1), which indicated not only the harvest volumes but also the likely prices.

The 2023/24 season in Canada was not very good, as the heat significantly reduced production, which, against the background of increasing domestic consumption, led to a decrease in exports and stocks. In the new season, summer precipitation contributed to the development of crops, so the harvest will be better, and crop prices will be lower than last year.

• According to Statistics Canada, the area under wheat will decrease by 3% to 8.3 million hectares compared to the previous season, including 6.5 million hectares under red-grain spring CWRS wheat (the most common type of wheat in the country). Currently, the area to be harvested is estimated at 8.1 mln ha. 90% of spring wheat crops in Saskatchewan and 79% in Alberta are in good or excellent condition. According to the forecast, the average wheat yield will be 3.6 t/ha, the total harvest will reach 29.1 million tons (USDA forecast 32 million tons), domestic consumption will increase by 2% to 8.6 million tons, and carryover stocks will reach 31.6 million tons. The average producer price for CWRS wheat may reach 330 CAD/t or $238/t, but it will depend on the harvest in the northern hemisphere, particularly in Russia, the quality of soft wheat in France and import demand from India and China.
• Canola planted area is estimated at 8.9 million hectares, yield – 2.12 t/ha, total harvest – 18.6 million tons, domestic processing – 11 million tons, and export – 7 million tons, but it will depend on the actual harvest. The average price may reach 680 CAD/t or $490/t, compared to 705 CAD/t or $508/t last year.
• Sunflower planting areas will decrease by 41% to 24 thou hectares compared to last year due to lower yields of this crop than other oilseeds. The average yield will be 2.22 t/ha, the harvest will be 51 thsd tonnes, and the total supply, taking into account last year’s stocks, will be 266 thsd tonnes. The average price will be 630 CAD/t or $454/t, compared to 535 CAD/t or $385/t in 2023/24 MY.
• The planted areas of linseed will decrease by 15% to 210 thsd ha, the yield will be 1.3 t/ha, production – 266 thsd tonnes, consumption will decrease to 91 thsd tonnes, and exports will reach 250 thsd tonnes. The average price will be 605 CAD/t or $436/t, which is higher than last year’s level, but lower than the 5-year average of 710 CAD/t or $512/t.
• Soybean planting areas will increase to 2.32 million hectares, total production – to 7.1 million tons, domestic processing – to 1.9 million tons, and exports – to 5 million tons, which will be the second highest after 5.64 million tons in 2018/19 season. Stocks will increase to 0.52 mln tons, and their ratio to consumption will be 5%. The average price will be 550 $/t, compared to 580 $/t last year and 562 $/t on average for 5 years.

Tags: prices, soybean, wheat, sunseed, rapeseed