Canada. Fall prices give first indication of spring acreage

Current price indications would point to fewer canola and barley acres in 2024 with a rebound in oat and lentil acres.

On canola, prices have slumped to slightly more than $15 a bushel, which is about $4 less than a year ago. Much of the price decline has occurred in the past six weeks.

Lower market prices will mean lower crop insurance prices, which reduces the incentive for the dry areas to hedge their bets with canola.

However, any decline in canola acres will be mitigated by the lack of other appealing options.

Spring wheat is down by much more than $2 a bu. compared to a year ago, and feed barley is down by nearly $2.

Barley is likely to take the biggest acreage hit. Upside potential for the crop seems limited now that China is again buying feed barley from Australia and American corn is entrenched as an alternative in Alberta’s feedlot alley.

Unlike wheat and barley, oats have shown a bit of price strength as carryover is gradually reduced. Oats are up by 50 cents a bu. or so compared to last year. Acreage should rebound a bit if the price continues to improve.

Durum prices are down only marginally from last year, but they have been a major disappointment. As the drought took hold in the western side of Saskatchewan and southern Alberta, many growers were looking for a repeat of 2021 when durum topped $20 a bu.

The crop did come close to $15 for a while but has steadily slipped and is now in the $13 range. Unexpectedly large durum exports from Turkey have been pegged as one of the reasons.

Durum is still showing a strong premium of nearly $4 a bu. versus spring wheat, so acres are likely to be maintained or may even increase.

Yellow field peas at more than $10 a bu. are down about $2 compared to a year ago. Meanwhile, green peas are strong at more than $15 a bu., and maple peas are riding high at around $25. The price differential should encourage more green peas. Maple peas may also increase, but it’s a small market that can be easily oversupplied. As well, seed availability and cost will limit expansion.

Red lentils at 36 or 37 cents a pound are up two or three cents from last year at this time. Meanwhile, large green lentils in the 63 cent a lb. range are up an amazing 13 or 14 cents a lb. Other classes of green lentils are also strong, so it would be logical to expect more greens in the ground next year, and reds may also increase.

Flax at $17 a bu. is more than $2 lower than last year, which won’t encourage much if any acreage rebound. Canaryseed at about 45 cents a lb. is similar to a year ago.

Mustard prices have dropped, but are still historically high. Saskatchewan Agriculture says the price of yellow mustard a year ago was around $1.10 a lb. with the current price at around 84 cents.

More than other crops, producers contract their mustard in advance of seeding, and the first contract prices typically come out this time of year. Those prices will be a big determinant to seeded acreage.

Kabuli chickpeas at around 54 cents a lb. are up about four cents from last year. Dry conditions have lessoned disease problems in recent years, so chickpea acreage is likely to increase.

While a lot can happen between now and seeding time, prices at the conclusion of harvest are the first seeding intention indicators.

Tags: Canada, wheat, rapeseed