Canada: Chickpea outlook bright

Canada’s chickpea crop is off to a good start.

“I’m new to the area, but what I’m being told by those who are veterans here, this is a good year, and it could lead to a pretty good outcome from a yield perspective on everything,” said Jake Hansen, general manager of Mid-West Grain.

Statistics Canada estimates growers planted 400,000 acres of the crop. He thinks it will be closer to 350,000 acres, which would still be the fourth biggest crop in the last two decades.

Agriculture Canada is forecasting 225,000 tonnes of production. Hansen thinks that is feasible, given the good start.

“Everyone got quite a bit of rain,” he said.

“Yield could be a great one this year.”

Canada’s main competitors in the kabuli chickpea market are Turkey, the United States and Argentina.

Hansen thinks growers in Turkey opted to plant green lentils in lieu of chickpeas, but a recent article published by the Global Pulse Confederation (GPC) suggests acreage will be similar to last year.

U.S. farmers planted an estimated 429,000 acres of the crop, a 15 per cent increase over last year.

He has spoken to U.S. growers, processors and insurers who say the crop is in great condition.

It is too early to tell what is happening in Argentina.

Canada, Turkey, the U.S. and Argentina all struggled to produce large calibre chickpeas last summer, which caused a “massive runup” in prices for nine millimetre kabulis in the winter.

“Prices will probably come down because there’s more chickpeas coming out of Canada and out of the U.S.,” said Hansen.

India and Mexico set the tone for the extra-large kabulis.

Global Garbanzo says India’s kabuli chickpea acres were way up, but yields have been disappointing.

The company estimates Indian growers increased seeded area by 30 to 35 per cent in response to last year’s historically high prices, according to a recent interview it did with the GPC.

However, the crop was seeded late and then there was a 15-day stretch of overcast skies in November during flowering that caused flowers to drop off, said Global Garbanzo director Navneet Chhabra.

Harvest wrapped up in April, and yields are estimated to be 10 to 50 per cent below normal.

“In general, I would say the average yield is down 25 to 30 per cent on the year,” Chhabra told GPC.

Yields are particularly poor in Madhya Pradesh, where 90 per cent of the large kabuli production occurs.

“This marks the fourth consecutive year of declining kabuli chickpea yields,” he said.

Calibre size was also affected, with 45 to 50 per cent of the crop categorized as large, compared to the usual 50 to 55 per cent.

Chhabra is forecasting an Indian kabuli crop of 400,000 to 425,000 tonnes, down from early season estimates that were as high as 550,000 tonnes.

The export price for the crop has risen to US$1,450 per tonne, up from earlier expectations of $1,350. Growers are holding the crop in hopes of further price escalation.

He is forecasting 300,000 tonnes of domestic consumption, leaving 100,000 tonnes for export.

He believes 50,000 tonnes were shipped in March and April, leaving another 50,000 tonnes to be moved over the next seven to eight months.

However, all the buying has recently been diverted to Mexico, which is selling its chickpeas at a $50 per tonne discount to Indian product.

Mexico harvested a big crop. GPC is forecasting 168,000 tonnes of production, up from 100,000 tonnes last year due to a near doubling of acres in that country.

It is unusual for Mexican product to be priced lower than Indian kabuli chickpeas. They typically sell for a $100 per tonne premium due to the superior quality of Mexican chickpeas.

Chhabra said India will still supply nearby markets such as Sri Lanka and the Middle East, but Mexico is supplying Turkey.

Hansen said Canada competes directly with India in kabuli markets but doesn’t tend to compete with Mexico. Mexico’s chickpeas tend to go to specialty markets because they are so big, and the quality is exceptional.

Chhabra said another factor to consider in the kabuli market is that the Indian government is considering allowing the import of Russian kabulis.

They can be used as a substitute for desi chickpeas, which are in short supply in India.

Chhabra said India’s kabuli acres were maxed out in 2023-24, so he doesn’t anticipate any further increase in 2024-25.

However, acres could drop if India imports 50,000 to 100,000 tonnes of Russian kabulis, driving prices down.

Tags: Market, Argentina, Turkey, estimates, United States, green lentils, Canada, kabuli chickpea, Mexico, Production, India, crop, yield, chickpea