Bulgarian rapeseed harvest may fall again in 2024

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Svitlana Kupreeva

Oilseed Market Analyst

Results of 2022/23 season

– Gross rapeseed harvest (-15% compared to 2021);

– The 2022 area  increased by 7%

– The 2022 yield (-20% compared to 2021).

– The lower harvest was accompanied by lower rapeseed and rapeseed oil exports

– Increase in rapeseed imports (July 2022 – January 2023):

• rapeseed imports – (+31% compared to the same months of the 2021/22 season);

– Major suppliers of rapeseed:

• Ukraine
• Belgium

Bulgaria banned rapeseed imports from Ukraine on 24 April, 2023 but the ban did not have a significant impact on the market due to the following:

• traditionally, the second half of the season is not active on the rapeseed market;
• the reduction in the rapeseed harvest in Bulgaria was offset by the increase in imports in previous months, with significant growth in imports not only from Ukraine but also from Belgium;
• the pressure on prices in Bulgaria was to a large extent in line with the trends in the European rapeseed market.

Outlook for 2023/24 MY

– Estimated rapeseed harvest based on the latest harvest data (-22% compared to 2022/23);

– Decline in exports and domestic crushing;

– EU countries are traditionally the largest importers of rapeseed;

– Ban on imports of rapeseed (and other crops) from Ukraine continues.

Forecasts for 2024/25

– The rapeseed market should have recovered after the last two seasons, but negative factors are currently dominating;

– Current prices of European importers are almost 28% lower than last year, which could reduce farmers’ income from rapeseed in 2024/25;

– As of 12 October, the sowing of winter rapeseed is almost 29% behind y/y, the sown area is 66 K ha compared to 92.8 K ha by mid October last year;

– The lack of moisture has already disrupted the best time for sowing winter rape for the 2024 harvest in some areas of Bulgaria.

– Once sowing is complete, the focus will traditionally shift to crop condition and overwintering, with short-term weather forecasts promising rain and improved conditions for the development of winter crops before they go dormant.

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Tags: Bulgaria, export, rapeseed, sown area, crop forecast, Ukraine