Brazil’s Abiove sees soy crop, exports down

Brazilian soybean crusher group Abiove on Monday lowered projections for the country’s 2021/2022 crop to 125.3 million tonnes, a 7.7% drop from the end of January, to better reflect harvest progress and the impact of drought-related losses.

Despite a reduction of 10.5 million tonnes from the previous output forecast, Abiove, which represents companies such as Cargill and Bunge, still believes local crushers will process a record 48 million tonnes, reflecting strong margins to make oil and soymeal in Brazil, the world’s largest supplier of soybeans.

The country, on the other hand, is poised to export 9.2 million fewer tonnes of the oilseed this season, or 77.7 million tonnes in total, a sign that US competitors are receiving more orders at a time when Brazilian shipments should be peaking.

“For soy exports, companies are dealing with a more tense scenario than was projected before,” said Daniel Furlan Amaral, chief economist at Abiove. “But I want to look at the glass as half full … What’s positive is to have Brazil’s crushing industry modern and competitive to meet the needs of the market.”

Abiove said Brazilian exports of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil would total $51.4 billion in 2022, down from the $56.3 billion forecast in January.

But even so, sales of the so called soy complex will be a record, reflecting higher product prices than last year.

Abiove estimates record soymeal exports at 18.3 million tonnes this season, and soyoil exports at 1.7 million tonnes, virtually the same as the record high of 1.756 million tonnes registered 10 years ago.

If Abiove’s soybean and domestic crushing projections are confirmed, Brazil’s carryover stocks at the end of 2022 would drop to an estimated 1.9 million tonnes, the lowest level in more than a decade, according to Abiove figures.

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Tags: soyoil, projections, soymeal, crushers, losses, Abiove, harvest, Brazil, prices, soybeans