Brazil’s 2024 soy production to fall below last season’s, Patria forecasts

Brazil’s soybean crop will reach 150.67 million metric tons in the 2023/24 cycle, below last season’s 154.10 million tons, consultancy Patria Agronegocios said on Thursday, as it factors in the effects of a severe drought in key producing states.

The projection represents a 2.2% drop from Brazil’s soy output in the 2022/23 cycle, Patria said.

In relation to the consultancy’s previous soy crop estimate, the projection implies a 5.14 ​​million tons fall for soy output in Brazil, the world’s largest producer and exporter of the commodity.

Thursday’s cut also represents one of the most aggressive by any private forecaster so far in the season, which began in mid-September in top grain supplier Mato Grosso state.

After farmers started planting their new crop, projections hovered around 164 million tons.

“Yield reductions were noted in almost all the main producing states, especially Center-West ones, Northeast and Tocantins (in the North),” Patria said.

The consultancy cited a delayed planting cycle as a reflection of “evident water stress” in parts of Rondonia, Mato Grosso, Goias and Tocantins, as well as and low germination quality amid high temperatures in those areas.

Patria also predicted a massive drop in Brazil’s output of second corn, which is planted after soybeans are harvested in the same areas and represents around 75% of total national corn output in a given year.

Delays in the soy season will reduce second corn’s planted area, farmers said , as they don’t want to risk sowing the cereal after the ideal climate window.

Patria pegged Brazil’s second corn crop at 82.45 million tons in 2023/24, down around 18 million tons from last season.

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