Brazil’s 2024/25 sugar production to hit record at 42.6 mln tons -Datagro

Sugar production in center-south Brazil for the 2024/25 (April-March) season should reach a record 42.6 million metric tons, with mills heavily favoring production of the sweetener over ethanol, consultancy Datagro said.

The projected record, which would exceed the 40.3 million tons estimated for the 2023/24 cycle, would come with a greater allocation of sugarcane for making the sweetener, with Datagro also projecting a drop in sugarcane crushing next season.

Crushing in 2024/25 is estimated at 620 million tons versus a record of 624.5 million tons expected for 2023/24.

With sugar commanding higher prices than ethanol, Datagro estimates an increase in cane allocation to sugar to 51.8% for the 2024/25 harvest, compared with 48.6% in the current cycle.

“If we compare hydrous ethanol and VHP (sugar), the relative prices have a difference of 13.52 cents per pound (to sugar). The incentive to produce more sugar when compared to ethanol is clear,” said Datagro director, Guilherme Nastari, during the 23rd International Sugar and Ethanol Conference in Sao Paulo.

Despite Brazil’s rising output, the global sugar market will remain in deficit, Datagro said, because sugar production in other countries such as India and Thailand is falling.

Nastari said there is risk that wetter weather will prevent the processing of all the sugarcane available in Brazil in the current season. He estimates around 25 million to 30 million tons of sugarcane will be left in the fields to be harvested next season.

Datagro said it expects 2 million tons to be added to Brazil’s sugar production capacity as mills make investments amid the high prices for the sweetener.

Tags: Brazil, prices, crop forecast