Brazilian crop of corn will set new record despite regional problems

Coming to the end of May, some situations are being defined for this 2023 second crop of corn. Many locations are not at risk of climate, others may still have some loss of productivity due to the cut in rainfall in the second half of May, and some are at risk due to the possibility of frosts in June. We have simply exciting market estimates, but they are not regionally updated nor keep up with crop progress. The crops in Brazil do not have the regionality of the United States, therefore, it is not enough to say that Mato Grosso is doing very well and that the national crop will be fine. It will be a record crop, however, it is still limited to outdo 137 mln tons.

This year’s weather hit Rio Grande do Sul again because of the occurrence of La Nina for the third consecutive year. However, as we have pointed out in our updates, the numbers were well above what companies in the market had been pointing out, and that Rio Grande do Sul is resuming corn exports. Except for this state, the climate was quite favorable in the other regions of the country. São Paulo, Minas Gerais, the south and southwest of Paraná, and Santa Catarina had a summer crop with record yields. Investments in technology and good weather conditions brought results.

Thus, the summer crop in the Center-South was corrected upward to 24.8 mln tons through higher average yields. This situation helped to put pressure on prices in the first semester and really brought a surprise to the market, in a situation in which growers chose to retain soybeans in warehouses and get rid of the summer corn.

The harvest in the North and Northeast is currently divided into three planting periods. The first one is the summer crop in western Bahia, which is beginning to be reaped, and yields once again are high. The second is the second crop of Matopiba, Pará, and Rondônia, which is developing in good conditions and will be reaped in August and September. The third period is the crop planting of the SEALBA region (Sergipe, Alagoas, and northeastern Bahia) which is planted in April and May and reaped in October.

In general, the crop in the Northeast is going well, but this transition to El Nino could still bring surprises to Maranhão and Piauí. For now, the North/Northeast crop at 14.3 mln tons still depends on the weather in June and July.

Finally, the 2023 second crop from Brazil’s Center-South. The second-crop planting pace was worrying. A lot of rain, delays in the soybean harvest, second-crop planting at the limit, a portion of the area planted in the second half of March, and an imposition of greater risk for crops in 2023. However, just as the weather was very favorable for the productivity of soybeans and corn in the summer, the corn second crop shows the same profile. Of course, this situation differs from region to region, as in some there are production losses in this second crop.

In Mato Grosso and southwestern Goiás, we have been reporting here the excellent condition of the 2023 second crop, as the rains went through March, April, and the first half of May. Most crops this year received summer technology and favorable rainfall. The first harvests on Highway 163 in Mato Grosso have average yields above 150 bags. These averages will drop during the harvest, however, they are records for the beginning of the second season and raise the average potential productivity to over 109 bags/hectare. We have rainfall cuts on the east side of both states, and later crops are likely to lose potential. Therefore, it is not enough just to look at the core of a crop estimate. For Goiás, we are raising the average to 106 bags, still weighing the weather on the east side. We believe that in these two states the average yield at harvest could still show higher numbers.

Northern Minas Gerais, eastern Goiás, and southern Tocantins have the same profile. The rains were cut in May, and later crops are and will have production losses, that is, they will not keep up with the rhythm of the other regions of this regional range of the country. Triangulo Mineiro, on the other hand, is still in good condition and should bring the state average to 115 bags per hectare. São Paulo has the same profile, with excellent crop conditions, and some moisture deficiency already in the Paranapanema Vale, but still projecting average yields for the state at 106 bags/hectare for this second crop. The June weather will still be important in both states.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, and Paraguay, crops are advancing in good conditions. There is some attention to the rains in the north of Paraná. The recent rains ensure the second crop in western Paraná, southern Mato Grosso do Sul, and Paraguay. The only fear still lies in the occurrence of a strong frost in June, which would still bring great losses due to the stage of crops. Until June 20, at least, there is no forecast of frost for the three regions. The north of Mato Grosso do Sul has occasional situations in certain locations with some losses of potential, however, still above the normal average. Thus, with each passing week, there is less risk of losses due to frost, and we are increasing productivity potential. Paraná to 105, and Mato Grosso do Sul to 102 bags/hectare. If all goes well in Paraguay, yields should also rise above 100 bags.

With these configurations and the effective planted area, it is still difficult to reach 100 mln tons of second crop without the effective harvest or with the weather conditions in the next thirty days. Now, Safras & Mercado has increased the second crop data to 97.8 mln tons against 84.4 mln tons in 2022. Remembering that in 2022 there was a severe drought in the east of Goiás and north of Minas and a high incidence of leafhoppers. In 2023, in addition to better rainfall and better-applied technology, no reports about the high incidence of leafhoppers were heard, which really may have been quite beneficial to the best average results so far.

The national crop is being revised to 137 mln tons, besides 4 mln tons of sorghum in 2023.

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