Brazilian agricultural agency Conab downgraded its soybean production forecast

Brazil’s agricultural agency Conab on Thursday lowered its forecast for the country’s soybean and corn production in 2023/24, citing the unfavorable impact of El Niño weather patterns on the crop.

The move followed successive cuts in grain production by private forecasters.

Conab lowered its forecast for Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean crop to 149.4 million tons from 155.2 million tons in a January report. Total corn production is forecast at 113.7 million tons, down from 117.6 million tons in January, Reuters reported.

Conab said the new soybean production estimate represents a 3.4% drop from 2022/23 output. At the start of the season, the agency expected Brazil’s soybean crop to be 162 million tons.

The lack of rain early in the season in Brazil’s central-west, southeast and Matopibe regions, followed by irregular and poorly distributed rains, had a negative impact on yields, the agency said.

Conab cited dry periods lasting more than 20 days in some areas, in addition to high temperatures, as factors worsening soybean and corn production in central Brazil.

Conab said first corn production, which will account for about 21% of total production this season, also faced excessive rains in southern Brazil.

First corn production, which will account for about 21% of total production this season, also faced excessive rains in southern Brazil, Conab said.

Second corn production, which comes after soybeans are harvested in the same areas, will also be down nearly 14% from last year, to about 88 million tons, due to a smaller planted area and higher climate risk, according to Conab.

Tags: crop forecast, Brazil, soybean