Brazil Soybeans 25% Harvested, Mato Grosso Leads with 60%

The weather last week in Brazil followed a familiar pattern – rainfall in the central and northern areas and generally dry conditions in the southern areas. The forecast for the next two weeks continues to call for generally dry conditions in southern Brazil with temperatures heating up into the upper 90’s. While the temperatures may not be as extreme as they were several weeks ago, they will be high enough to create moisture stress for the remaining soybeans.

The soybeans in Brazil were 25.6% harvested late last week compared to 7.1% last year and 16.2% average according to Safras & Mercado. Mato Grosso continues to lead the way with 60% harvested.

Mato Grosso – The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 60% harvested as of late last week compared to 22% last year and 48% average according to the Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea). This represents an advance of 14 points for the week. The area where the harvest is most advanced is in the western part of the state where 75% of the soybeans have been harvested. The slowest harvest pace is in the center-south where 33% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Yields in Mato Grosso continue to be variable. Imea recently estimated the statewide soybean yield at 60.2 sacks per hectare (53.8 bu/ac), which is 4.9% higher than last year, but probably less than what many producers had been hoping for. The soybean acreage in the state is up 4.3% compared to last year to 10.92 million hectares (26.9 million acres) and the total soybean production in the state is estimated at 39.48 million tons.

Parana – The soybeans in Parana were 15% harvested as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). The soybeans were 1% in vegetative development, 5% flowering, 55% filling pods, 39% mature and 15% harvested. The soybeans were rated 31% poor, 33% average, and 36% good.

Rio Grande do Sul – As mentioned earlier in this report, Rio Grande do Sul is the last major soybean producing state in Brazil where the soybean crop could still be significantly influenced by the weather. Unfortunately, hot and dry conditions are forecasted to return to the state. Temperatures are not forecasted to be as hot as they were several weeks ago, but they are still expected to be in the upper 90’s.

Emater reported that the soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul were 42% flowering, 35% filling pods, and 3% maturing as of late last week, but 20% of the soybeans are still in vegetative development. The majority of the soybeans are rated poor to average and only a small portion of the rows have filled in. The early maturing soybeans are filling pods and maturing and they are under the greatest moisture stress especially in areas with sandier soils.

Emater expects the soybean production in the state to be down 43.8% to 11.2 million tons. Their initial production estimate was 19.9 million tons. Emater’s estimate is 2.5 million tons below Conab’s current estimate of 13.7 million tons.

Mato Grosso do Sul – In the municipality of Laguna Carapa in southern Mato Grosso do Sul, the soybeans are 70% harvested and the yields range from a low of 10-12 sacks per hectare (9 to 11 bu/ac) to a high of 30 sacks per hectare (26.8 bu/ac). The average yield in the municipality is expected to be approximately 25 sacks per hectare (22.3 bu/ac). In addition to low yields, the soybean seed are light in weight and poor quality.

Soybean & Corn Advisor

Tags: forecast, yield, dry conditions, Brazil, weather, soybeans, Production