Brazil: Soybean prices fell over the week, following Chicago and premiums

Soybean prices dropped last week in the internal market, and the business pace was slower, with not very significant volumes negotiated. Over the week, Chicago retreated and the dollar was volatile, but there were moments of better opportunities that generated good deals. Producers remain focused on harvesting the new crop and seeking only the best market opportunities.

A 60-kilogram bag fell from BRL 172.00 to 171.00 in Passo Fundo (RS) last week. In the same period, the prices dropped from BRL 169 to 167 in Cascavel (PR). In Rondonópolis (MT), prices also suffered a slight decline from BRL 160.00 to 159.00. At the port of Paranaguá (PR), the bag had a new low from BRL 178.00 to 173.00.

Among the main benchmarks for internal price formation, the behavior of Chicago exerted the greatest influence, registering a sharp decline at the beginning of the week and holding the price range at USD 15.27 a bushel. In the exchange rate, the movement remains volatile and without a defined trend in the short term. The market remains attentive to new information about the direction of the new government’s monetary policy.

The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended last week accumulating devaluation. Over the week, the market found firm resistance at USD 15.42 per bushel, prices were at an overbought level but began to be affected by the development of the Brazilian harvest. Premiums were also pressured, which dropped domestic prices.

Even with the harvest still staying below average for the period in the country, no major problem is expected, and production must set a new record above 152 mln tons. Argentina can still bring more cuts to its crop, but in the medium term the trend remains negative for prices due to the strong Brazilian supply. The prospect of a record crop in Brazil, according to SAFRAS & Mercado, is already impacting export premiums due to the harvest progress.

Producers continue to monitor the adverse climate effects, which limits further advances in the harvest. We will still have conditions of high moisture next week, mainly in the Midwest and North regions of the country. In the South region, we must have a little more moisture between the states of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and Paraná.

Tags: harvest, prices, soybean, crop, CBOT, Market