Brazil expanding its soy area but corn production is expected to fall as prices drop

Brazilian farmers will have a record soy output in the new season as they are sowing the oilseed over a larger area, the government’s crop agency Conab said this week in the first forecast report for the 2023/24-grain cycle.

Farmers in the food powerhouse, which have already began planting their new soy and first corn, are expected to produce 162 million metric tons of soybeans, 4.8% more than last year, Conab said.

Brazilian soy growers are expected to expand the planted area to 45.1 million hectares from 44 million hectares, a 2.5% rise from last season, according to Conab calculations.

However Brazilian farmers will reap an estimated 119.404 million tons of total corn, a 9.5% drop from last season, reflecting a smaller planted area and the initial effects of the El Niño weather pattern.

Conab said Brazil’s first and second corn planted area will be reduced by respectively 6.7% and 4.5% in the 2023/24 cycle as farmers are finding corn prices unattractive relative to soybeans.

The El Niño weather pattern is already affecting Brazil’s corn outlook.

In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil’s southernmost state, heavy rains have considerably delayed first corn planting, Conab said.

Based on the above estimates Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total at least 99 million tons in 2024, up from 98 million in 2023, representing a 1% increase between seasons. The forecast is part of Safras & Mercado’s Brazilian supply and demand overview.

The consultancy predicts a 4% increase in soybean crushing, from 53 million tons in 2023 to 55 million in 2024. As for imports, a drop from 130,000 to 110,000 tons is expected between the two seasons.

Regarding the total oilseed supply, the projection indicates a 6% increase, reaching 168.871 million tons. Total demand is projected at 157.7 million tons, a 2% increase from the previous year. Final stocks are expected to rise by 103%, from 5.5 million to 11.2 million tons.

Soybean meal production is forecasted at 42.3 million tons in 2024, a 4% increase. Exports are expected to decrease by 2% to 21.5 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected to rise by 8%, reaching 20 million tons. Stocks are trending upwards, with a 36% increase to 3.03 million tons.

The consultancy also indicates a 3% increase in soybean oil production, totaling 11.1 million tons. Brazil is set to export 2.05 million tons, marking a 9% decline. Domestic consumption is expected to rise by 5% to 9 million tons, with a 13% increase to 4.5 million tons for biodiesel use. Stock forecasts show a 13% increase to 615,000 tons.

Tags: planted area, exports, output, corn, Эль-Ниньо, soybean oil, Brazil, estimate, soybeans, Outlook, Production, soybean meal, forecast