Brazil 2022-23 grain, oilseed crops may reach record

Brazil is forecasting record grain and oilseed harvests for its 2022-23 season, boosted by increased acreage.

Production of the 2022-23 crop is expected to reach 312.4mn t, a record, Brazil’s national agricultural agency Conab said in its first survey of the 2022-23 crop. This is 15.3pc higher than its estimate of 270.9mn t for the 2021-22 season, the current record.

Conab estimates the planted area for the 2022-23 season at 76.6mn hectares (ha), up from 74.4mn ha in the previous crop.

Estimates for the soybean crop, whose planting already started, signal oilseed production should reach 152.4mn t in the 2022-23 season, up from 125.5mn t in last year’s estimates. The expected area for soy is 42.9mn ha, up from 41.5mn ha estimated for the 2021-22 crop.

Conab expects corn production — the first, second and third crops — of 126.9mn t, up from the 112.8mn t estimate for the 2021-22 crop. The estimated area for total corn output is 22.4mn ha, also up from 21.6 estimated for last season.

For the first corn crop, production is expected at 28.7mn t, which is 14.6pc higher than in the 2021-22 season, even with a reduction of 1.5pc in planted acreage, since the crop has come under pressure from rising production costs, pests and a migration to more profitable crops such as soybeans. Second corn crop production, the largest harvest of the country, is forecast at 96.3mn t, up from the 85.6mn t estimated in the previous season.

Conab also expected an increase in cotton lint production in 2022-23, estimated at 2.9mn t, from 2.6mn t. For wheat, Conab forecasts production of 9.36mn t, practically stable from the 9.37mn t estimated last month and 21.9pc higher than the previous season, which was 7.7mn t.

Supply and demand

Domestic consumption of soybeans in Brazil for the 2022-23 season is estimated at 51.2mn t, up from 48.8mn t seen in the 2021-22 season.

Soybean exports are expected to reach 95.9mn t, up from 78.3mn t in the last cycle. The import outlook was unchanged from the previous season, still at 500,000t.

Domestic corn consumption for the 2022-23 season is expected at 81.8mn t, higher than the 77.mn t estimated for the 2021-22 cycle. Corn exports are expected to reach 45mn t, up from 37mn t in the last season. Conab’s corn import estimates are at 1.5mn t, down from the 1.9mn t registered in 2021-22.

Tags: corn, Brazil, soybean, crop forecast