Birdu Flu approches Brazil but with small risk of more serious problems

Last week, two cases of bird flu were confirmed in Uruguay and Argentina, one of them less than 200 kilometers away from the border with Brazil. The disease has been a serious problem in chicken production since the middle of last decade, but there is no reason to panic about the situation in the Brazilian market due to some factors such as:

– Even if wild birds catch the disease in Brazil, the country will not lose its sanitary status. Export losses only happen when the spread of the disease in commercial farms is confirmed;

– When a commercial farm is affected by the disease, the safety protocol requires the sanitary slaughter of all animals present. The mechanism developed by the OIE to suspend exports is by region. Basically, in cases of disease, there is a ban on exports within a radius of 10 kilometers around the focus of the disease, minimizing losses;

– Brazil strictly follows the main biosecurity standards in force. Brazilian commercial farms are environments with strict control of the entry and exit of people, and only people who perform some function within the farm are authorized to enter. It is virtually impossible for commercial birds to come into contact with wild ones in Brazil. Even the water supply is controlled, substantially reducing the risk of spreading Avian Influenza and other diseases.

The situation in the United States is quite emblematic in this sense. The main producer of chicken meat on a global scale has registered outbreaks of the disease since mid-2014 and even so its production has not been seriously affected. According to USDA projections, more than 21 mln tons of chicken meat must be produced in 2023. Even with outbreaks of the disease, the United States remains the second main exporter of chicken meat.

Another aspect to be considered is that from the point of view of global supply, there is no other player capable of replacing Brazil at this time. That is, it is still safe to indicate that Brazil will maintain the global leadership of chicken meat exports in 2023, with shipments forecast by SAFRAS & Mercado at around 4.8 mln tons.

The disease needs to be faced with the seriousness it deserves. The increase in supervision by the competent bodies is the minimum given the proximity of the cases. However, there is no reason to panic, chicken meat production and exports would only be affected in a more serious scenario, which seems unlikely given the sanitary strength in force in Brazil. Pointing out possible damage to Brazilian production (which would consequently affect the demand for inputs used in animal nutrition – corn and soymeal) is, to say the least, rash, considering that there are only two contaminated wild birds in Argentina and Uruguay. For now, it is necessary to maintain vigilance and closely monitor the reports released by the OIE and other authorities that deal with animal health in Brazil.

Having access to quality information that corresponds to the reality of facts is a key factor in this type of environment. Sensationalist news only serves to disturb markets and produce instabilities, which certainly does not help decision-making.

The latest OIE report points to new outbreaks of the disease in Europe and the Americas. The cases of Argentina and Uruguay will be included in the next report. At the moment, the problem is more serious in Europe, with 89 new outbreaks of the disease in 2023 alone, since last year there were only 6 outbreaks in South America (and none of them in Brazil). In short, the health protocols adopted by Brazil offer some peace of mind even in the face of a challenging scenario.

Tags: Argentina, Uruguay, wild birds, bird flu, export, Brazil, Production, chicken, Market