Corn – The 2022 U.S. corn yield was left unchanged this week at 177.0 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward. I have had a neutral to lower bias for several weeks, but I thought the weather was good enough last week to switch to a neutral bias, at least for this week. The longer-range forecast is calling for hotter and dryer weather during the second half of July, and if that forecast verifies, my bias will once again switch to a neutral to lower bias.
Going forward, the weather this week will be better in the northern and northwestern Corn Belt with hotter and dryer conditions in the western and southwestern Corn Belt. The longer-range forecast is worrisome for everyone, but especially for the western Corn Belt.
The corn condition held steady last week at 64% rated good to excellent. The corn is 15% silking compared to 24% last year and 25% average. The corn is 8% silking in Nebraska (19% average), 7% in Iowa (21% average), 15% in Illinois (40% average), 16% in Indiana (26% average), and 7% Ohio (14% average). The corn is 2% in the dough stage compared to 3% last year and 3% average.
The crop had a steady-as-it-goes type of week last week and I have been asked if the conditions have improved enough for me to consider increasing the U.S. corn yield. My answer to that question is no, not yet. I would need to see one or two more weeks of good weather before I would consider increasing the yield estimate, and that does not seem to be in the forecast.
The corn condition is below that of 2020 and 2021 as well as the 20-year average, and we are just now entering the critical time for corn and the weather forecast looks uncertain. The rains last week resulted in a temporary reprieve for some of the dry areas, but not everyone received the rain they needed. It now looks like we may be entering into a hotter and dryer pattern once again.
With a harvested acreage of 81.9 million acres and a yield of 177.0 bu/ac, the 2022 U.S. corn production is estimated at 14.49 billion bushels.
Soybeans – The 2022 U.S. soybean yield was left unchanged this week at 51.5 bu/ac and I have a neutral bias going forward. As with corn, I had a neutral to lower bias for the soybean yield for several weeks, but I thought the weather was good enough last week to switch to just a neutral bias. How long we stay neutral will depend on the weather of course and if the hotter and dryer forecast verifies, I may be back to a lower bias as soon as next week.
Last week was a good week for the soybeans, but there are warning signs going forward. The forecast is calling for hotter and dryer conditions for the next 15 days which is just as the soybeans will be entering their critical reproductive phase.
The most important time for soybeans is approximately the last 1-2 weeks of July and the first three weeks of August because that is when the crop is primarily setting pods and filling pods. If the weather turns dryer during the second half of July and the soybeans experience moisture stress, that could impact the potential soybean yields. Some of the pods could be aborted and there may be poor pod filling. That would put even more pressure to have good weather going into the all-important month of August.
The soybeans condition declined 1% last week to 62% rated good/excellent. The soybeans are 32% blooming compared to 44% last year and 38% average. The soybeans are 6% setting pods compared to 9% last year and 9% average.
With a harvested acreage of 87.5 million acres and a yield of 51.5 bu/ac, the 2022 U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.50 billion bushels.
