Barley harvest in Europe will be 4-5 million tons less than the previous two

In its November report, RMI Analytics slightly increased its estimate of the global barley harvest, but reported that the harvest in Europe was significantly smaller than last year.

The overall harvest forecast was slightly increased by 0.3 million tons to 140.8 million due to the completion of the harvest in Canada and improved forecasts in Australia. In Canada, the harvest volume is estimated at 8 million tons, while the quality of barley is quite good. In Australia, the total volume is estimated at 11.19 million tons, which is 0.2 million tons higher than the previous forecast. In Argentina, barley is developing well, and analysts estimate the harvest at 4.59 mln tonnes, but some regions experienced frosts that will affect the harvest.

The assessment of the situation in Europe and the UK remained unchanged – the harvest is estimated at 54.46 mln tonnes, which is 4-5 mln tonnes less than in 2021 and 2022. During the harvest in Northern Europe, farmers faced several challenges. High humidity led to premature germination and complicated sowing of winter barley. The quality of the crop is still being assessed, which has led to a jump in prices.

Given the reduced demand for raw materials with imperfect quality and smaller harvest volumes, the market remains in balance. The area under crops is expected to increase in 2024, in part due to delays in sowing winter barley. Analysts suggest that in 2024, the market may see a much-needed recovery in planted areas, which will help to increase the harvest.

As in northern Europe, winter barley planting in France is also about 10% behind schedule, and analysts also expect an increase in spring barley acreage in 2024.

The total global barley harvest is estimated to be 11.3 mln tons lower than in 2022, the only time in the last ten years the world has harvested less. However, RMI Analytics expects that malt quality barley will be sufficient amid declining demand, provided that Argentina and Australia harvest at least an average volume.

Tags: Australia, barley, EU, Canada, crop forecast