Australia’s wheat harvest and exports will decline next season

Australian farmers will reduce the area under wheat during the current planting campaign, according to the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service under the US Department of Agriculture (FAS).

Gross wheat harvest this year will fall to 25.8 million tons (-0.2 million tons to 2023 levels). Yields will be below average. Sowing of wheat will take place in Australia in May-July, harvesting will begin in October.

Australia’s eastern states are entering the planting campaign with good soil moisture thanks to rainfall across the area in early April. Western Australia and South Australia have low soil moisture. Fields in these states have yet to receive any significant rainfall, with rainfall unlikely in the coming weeks.

FAS forecasts that Australian wheat exports next season, which starts in October, could fall to 17.5 million tons, down 2.5 million tons from the current season.

China is by far the largest export destination for Australian wheat, and has consistently accounted for about a quarter of all wheat exports in recent years. Indonesia is in second place, accounting for about 15% of total exports.

The area under barley will be expanded during the current planting campaign, but yields will be below average, FAS predicts. Barley gross harvest will rise to 10.9 million tons (+0.1 million tons to the current season level).

Australian barley exports may decline to 5.0 million tons, down 2.0 million tons from the current season.

Tags: Australia, export, wheat, crop forecast