Australia will not be able to repeat last year’s record grain harvest

The grain harvest in Australia will be much smaller than the last record year. This is due to El Niño. However, the country remains a major exporter of wheat, barley and sorghum. The most important customer for these products is China.

Australian grain farmers had a very good start to the season, with good soil moisture reserves. However, from July to September 2023, the rainfall was significantly below average.

El Niño weather conditions continue to prevail, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology predicts that the drought will continue in the coming months.

The USDA office in Canberra still expects wheat production to reach 26.5 million tons, which is the average for the last 10 years. However, the record wheat harvest of 39.7 million tons in 2022/23 marketing year will be lost by a wide margin. In 2023/24 MY, wheat exports are expected to reach 18.5 mln tons, compared to the record 32 mln tons last year.

For 2023/24 marketing year, barley production is also forecasted at 10 million tons and exports at 5.5 million tons. This is about 11% less than the 10-year average and also less than last year (14.1 million tons).

According to the USDA, Australia has more than 50 wheat export destinations. Among them, there are six main customers: China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand. These countries have accounted for the largest share of Australia’s wheat exports over the past five years. Wheat exports to China in the 2022/23 financial year increased to more than 7 million tons, equivalent to about a quarter of Australia’s wheat exports.

In August 2023, China announced that it would eliminate import duties on Australian barley. In September 2023, it was reported that the first batch of barley left the port of Western Australia towards China. Industry experts note that now that barley trade is resuming, other major barley exporters to China (e.g. France) may come under pressure.

Tags: Australia, grain, barley, wheat, weather forecasts