Australia to export 5.8 mln tons of rapeseed in 2023-2024 season

Australia will export 20 million tons of wheat, 7.6 million tons of barley and 5.8 million tons of rapeseed in the 2023-2024 season, according to Grain cental.

Australia’s rapeseed exports will be 5.8-6 million tons in the 2023-2024 season, and will drop significantly to 4.5 million tons in the following 2024-2025 season as it experiences increased competition from palm oil.

It is noted that the EU has reduced rapeseed purchases in Australia as Ukraine and Canada enter the market, but increased production in Canada is expected to affect demand in South America and the Middle East. As with wheat and barley, ending stocks of rapeseed are expected to be lower than in previous seasons due to falling domestic production.

“Prospects for canola values near $1,000/ton are no longer in sight, but these factors could well lead to prices on the East Coast rising above the $700/ton mark for canola in late 2024,” experts expect.

Australian wheat exports for the 2023-2024 season are forecast to reach 20 million tons, with more than 80% of that volume shipped by the end of June. As a result, carryover stocks are expected to be the lowest since 2019-2020.

“Recent price increases, driven by concerns over Russian production, have allowed farmers to achieve solid sales as they finalize old crop sales,” said Rural Bank regional agribusiness manager for Western Victoria Wayne Saunders. Prices have since fallen due to stabilizing production estimates in Russia and pressure from crop sellers in the Northern Hemisphere, but a 20-25 million tonne deficit in the Black Sea-European region suggests further upside.

Barley exports are forecast at 7.6 million tons in 2023-2024, with demand from China following the removal of duties last August being the main driver of growth. This, combined with lower production in 2023-2024 due to the unfavorable weather effects of the El Niño phenomenon, will lead to very low stock levels in 2024-2025. As domestic demand will remain strong, barley exports in 2024-2025 are expected to be at a five-year low of 6 million tons.

Earlier, UFOP warned of an impending global shortage of rapeseed. The International Grains Council (IGC) forecasts global rapeseed production at 87.2 million tons in 2024/25, down 2% from last year due to reduced planted area and lower yields.

Tags: Australia, export, wheat, rapeseed