Australia: October barley exports surge on China buying

Australia exported 926,675 tonnes of barley and 42,851t of sorghum in October, according to the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Malting barley exports in October totalled 213,531t, down 29 percent from the 301,810t shipped in September.

Feed barley exports more than doubled to mark the opening month of the shipping year, and totaled 713,144t, up from 342,284t exported in September.

China on 540,251t was the destination for 76pc of Australia’s October feed barley exports, with Japan on 99,597t and The Philippines on 62,621t the other volume buyers.

Sorghum exports dived from 271,593t in September to reflect the rundown on available stocks.

Flexi Grain pool manager Sam Roache said feed barley exports “exploded” in October.

“This was the first month when Chinese export demand was properly reflected on the shipping stem, and there were still some restrictions over total tonnage shipped,” Mr Roache said.

“That’s because many port zones were low on inventory, and were therefore unable to participate until new-crop harvest hits the bins.

“Additionally some other destination business was still being executed including The Philippines, which must be from prior to the China tariff removal as it doesn’t price well now.”

Mr Roache said there was more upside to come for monthly feed barley shipments.

“We expect to see shipments pushing up to 1 million tonnes (Mt) a month for November and December, and we already see around 500,000t on the stems for January, not including containers.”

Mr Roache said Australia looks like shipping an “astonishing” 4Mt in total from October 1 to January or February.

“That’s an amazing figure, considering a total export availability of around 5Mt for the Oct-Sep marketing year.

“To be anywhere near 80pc shipped on an average crop so early in the season is unprecedented.”

Mr Roache said the underlying factor was China’s “extremely strong” total barley demand, and well-priced Australian barley therefore being the largest supplier.

“China’s buying and shipping pace indicates demand is far deeper than the USDA estimate and many traders’ figures, but the program is becoming hard to ignore.

“Current business implies that China will buy at least 3-4Mt more than USDA estimate, which is a significant figure in the barley space.”

On malting, China on 123,878t was also the volume buyer, followed by Mexico on 35,332t and Vietnam on 33,000t.

“The strong Mexico, South Africa and Vietnam demand is great to see, but it is all likely to be business put on prior to China tariff removals and wouldn’t calculate so well on price today.

“With Chinese demand so strong and our significant freight advantage to China versus competing origins, I think we will see Australian competitiveness to South America, and Middle East / Africa drop off further over the medium term.

“Australia’s malting barley is priced very competitively versus Canadian and French, and will get all the business it needs, and probably more, on price today.”

On sorghum, Mr Roache said some excellent rain through most growing areas, and with more on the forecast, is expected to underpin a much bigger planted area than was initially forecast.

“This should see a robust export program continue.”

Mr Roache said China was showing significant demand for sorghum as well as barley.

“Shipments are running hot and US sorghum exports are far outpacing USDA yearly demand estimates.

“Marketing the crop doesn’t seem like an issue today.”

Table 1: Australian feed barley exports for August, September and October 2023. Source: ABS

Table 2: Australian malting barley exports for August, September and October 2023. Source: ABS

Table 3: Australian sorghum exports for August, September and October 2023. Source: ABS

Tags: Australia, China, export, barley, shipments, sorghum, demand