August USDA report surprised the market with new forecasts

Many of the USDA estimates significantly differ from those made by relevant ministries and analytical agencies in the Black Sea region.

The wheat production and export forecasts for both Ukraine and Russia were lifted, while that for Kazakhstan was, on the contrary, reduced. The most astonishing was a low estimate of production in Russia (78 MMT).

The figures for Ukraine’s corn crop and exports were unexpectedly increased by 0.5 MMT to 39.5 MMT, while trade sources point out a severe impact of drought on crops, UkrAgroConsult reports.

Overall, the forecast for Black Sea grain production in MY 2020/21 was lifted by 0.3%, to 203.5 MMT, while the export forecast was raised by 1.16%, to 109.86 MMT.

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