Argus cuts Ukraine wheat crop outlook to 19.9 mln tons

Argus Media has cut its forecast for wheat output this year in Ukraine, a leading exporter of the grain, to 19.93 million metric tons, down some 230,000 tons from previously and 11% below the year before due to a lower planted area.

The forecast compares to a five-year average of 25.9 million tons, it said.

Cereal planting in Ukraine has declined since Russia’s invasion as Kyiv has lost control of some territory, while cash-strapped farmers have favoured more profitable crops like oilseeds.

“The decreased production is the result of revised harvested areas, which are now estimated at 4.37 million hectares (mln ha) for 2024/25, down from November’s forecast of 4.55 mln ha and the current season’s level of about 4.70 mln ha,” Argus, which owns agriculture consultancy Agritel, said.

The fall was only partly offset by a rise in the average wheat yield forecast to 4.56 t/ha, up from 4.43 t/ha previously and a five-year average of 4.26 t/ha.

Argus’ outlook, based on results of its annual crop tour, is well above that of the Ukrainian farm ministry, which forecast the 2024 wheat harvest at 19 million tons last week, also mostly due to an expected smaller sowing area.

Tags: grain, Outlook, Production, wheat, forecast, yield, output, Argus Media, Ukraine