Analysts lower forecasts for corn production in the world and in the US in 2023/24 MY

In the June report, IGC experts lowered the forecast of global corn production in 2023/24 MY by 6 mln tonnes to 1.211 bln tonnes, which is 5% higher than last year’s 1.15 bln tonnes, but significantly lower than USDA’s forecast of 1.223 bln tonnes.

At the same time, the forecast of world wheat production was increased by 3 million tons to 786 million tons, which is slightly lower than last year’s 788.5 million tons, but exceeds the average annual level. Although the USDA in June estimated the wheat harvest at 800.2 million tons.

the Forecast of world rapeseed production has been reduced to 85.9 million tons, which is 10 million tons higher than the annual average, but 2.4% lower than last year’s record 88 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 87.2 million tons. The reason for the adjustment was the hot and dry weather in the EU and Canada.

Refinitiv Commodities Research lowered its forecast of corn production in the U.S. in 2023/24 MY by another 11 mln tonnes to 364 mln tonnes (387.7 mln tonnes – USDA), as the condition of crops in the Corn Belt deteriorated significantly, despite recent rainfall. At the same time, the forecast of soybean production in the United States was reduced by 4 million tons to 115 million tons (122.7 million tons – USDA) due to the deterioration of crops in the major agricultural regions of the Midwest.

Also, Refinitiv Commodities Research lowered its forecast for corn production in China by 0.3 million tons to 278.2 million tons (277.2 million tons last year) amid a shortage of precipitation in some northern regions of the country.

In Argentina, drought delays the sowing of winter crops, so experts of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced the forecast of wheat planting areas by another 0.1 million hectares to 6 million hectares.

Tags: crop forecast, corn, USA, Argentina