Agriculture Weather Watch: Below average rainfall projection dampens Latin America’s crop prospects

Argentina is likely to witness below normal rains over the next 15 days, leading to further dryness, while heat will continue to stress crops, space technology provider Maxar said in its daily weather report Nov. 29.

Meanwhile, Brazil is likely to see favorable weather conditions for crop planting and growth in the coming days.

Wetter weather in Brazil will provide some relief to the corn and soybean crops as rainfall in most parts of the country has been lower than normal for November.

** Overall corn crop conditions in Argentina were far from ideal with only 12% of the crop under excellent or good conditions as of Nov. 23, as against 81% a year ago, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said in its weekly crop report Nov. 24.

** The center-west region of Brazil is likely to receive significant rainfall, with Mato Grosso bordering Goias seeing good showers Nov. 29-Dec. 5, according to Brazil’s National Institute of Meteorology, or INMET, forecast.
** The other parts of Brazil’s center-west region could see moderate precipitation, the INMET forecast said.
** First-season corn planting in Brazil reached 68.6% as of Nov. 26, compared with 75.3% a year ago, according to the national agricultural agency Conab.

** The most significant rainfall deficits were found in southern Mato Grosso, southern Goias, northern Mato grosso do Sul, and western Sao Paulo in Brazil, MAXAR said.

** Platts assessed corn, FOB Santos, for January loading at $299.98/mt Nov. 30, largely steady on the month, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.

** 34% of winter wheat crop was rated in good-to-excellent condition, against 32% in the previous week. However, this was 10 percentage points below last year’s rating and lowest in 20 years, USDA Nov. 29 crop progress report showed.

** According to the National weather service, cold weather is making its way into the Corn Belt as extremely low wind chills are expected in parts of Nebraska, South Dakota, and Iowa.

** US harvested corn as of Nov. 20 was up 3 percentage points from the previous week. This year’s harvest progress is 2 percentage points ahead of last year’s 94% and 6 percentage points ahead of the five-year average.

** Platts assessed US Corn CIF New Orleans at $309.45/mt Nov. 30, over 9% lower on the month, S&P Global data showed.

** US soybean harvest wrapped up earlier this month as crop yields fluctuated with rainfall patterns in 2022.

** Platts assessed US Soybean CIF New Orleans at $592.49/mt Nov. 30, 1.3% lower on the month, S&P Global data showed.

** US Congress moves to avert massive railroad strike by voting on a bill driving unions to accept the tentative agreement reached earlier this year between railroad owners and their workers as Dec.4 deadline approaches.
Australia

** Chances of heavy showers were seen declining across Australia, especially New South Wales, over the next two weeks, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said.

** Western Australia is unlikely to witness heavy showers during the next two weeks, according to the BOM.

** Showers have delayed wheat harvest across Australia and raised concerns over crop quality given persistent showers, market participants said.

** Australia is likely to harvest a near record 34.5 million mt of wheat in marketing year 2022-23 (October-September), against 36.4 million mt in MY 2021-22, the US Department of Agriculture data showed.

** Platts assessed Australian Premium White wheat at $358/mt Nov. 30, down 7.5% on the month, S&P Global data showed.

** Intensity of rainfall likely to increase over the next week to Dec. 7 across France, Mateo France said.

** Expected showers over France may help grain yields, which were under pressure due to hot and dry conditions, traders said.

** In the week to Dec. 14, showers may turn sporadic in some regions of France, the agency said.

** The European Commission forecast total EU cereal production in MY 2022-23 (July-June) at 270.8 million mt, according to its November update, down from 272.6 million mt a month ago.

** Platts assessed EU wheat with 11% protein content CPT Rouen at $331.5/mt Nov. 30, down 3.63% month on month, S&P Global data showed.

Tags: Australia, Production, harvest, crop, corn, dryness, planting, conditions, Brazil, Argentina, EU, rains, weather, cereal, winter wheat, soybean, US, crops