After falling to a 4-month low, wheat prices rose slightly

The acceleration of wheat harvesting in the US, EU, Ukraine and Russia provides new data on the quality and yield of the new crop. Against this backdrop, wheat quotations rose by 2.9-7.2% during the week after falling to a 4-month low based on the July USDA report, which significantly increased the forecast for global wheat production.

In Ukraine, export demand prices for milling wheat are rising on the back of worse-than-expected quality data. But this growth is limited by low prices for Russian wheat. During the week, the purchase price for milling wheat increased by 6-10 USD/t to 195-200 USD/t or 9300-9500 UAH/t, while feed wheat remained at 175-180 USD/t or 8000-8300 UAH/t with delivery to the Black Sea ports.

September wheat futures yesterday rose:

• 1% to 201,36 $/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.9% for the week),
• 0.3% to 210 $/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.9%),
• by 2.1% to 228.8 $/t – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+7.2%),
• by 0.9% to 225.75 €/t or 245.9 $/t – for wheat on the Paris Euronext (+5.7%).

In the United States, as of July 21, winter wheat was harvested on 76% of the area (72% on average over 5 years), and 77% of spring wheat crops are in good or excellent condition (as a week ago), compared to 49% last year.

During July 12-18, wheat exports from the United States decreased by half compared to the previous week, to 238 thousand tons, and in total in 2024/25 MY (from June 1) reached 2.59 million tons, which is 20.22% ahead of last year’s pace.

As of July 19, Ukraine harvested 10.3 million tons of wheat from 2.627 million hectares, or 59% of the area, with a yield of 3.92 t/ha. As the harvest progresses to the north and west, where the weather was better for the crops, the average yield is increasing. A wave of rains reduced the heat, and wheat crops were not affected. Exports of wheat for July 1-19 amounted to 872 thousand tons, which is twice as much as last year’s 451 thousand tons.

In France, the condition of soft wheat crops continues to deteriorate. As of July 15, the share of crops in good or excellent condition decreased from 57% to 52%, the worst figure since the abnormal 2019, when such crops were only 42%. Wheat has been harvested on 14% of the area, compared to 43% on average. According to the forecast of Strategy Grains, the harvest of soft wheat will decrease from 35.1 to 28.7 million tons compared to last year.

As of July 19, Russia harvested 40.75 mln tonnes of wheat from 11.42 mln hectares or 37.8% of the area. The average yield for the week decreased by 8% to 3.57 t/ha, and it continues to deteriorate as the harvest progresses to the north and east. Market participants are concerned about the quality of wheat, but local agencies believe that there will be no quality problems this season.

According to Rusagrotrans, export prices for July-August shipments of Russian wheat with 12.5% protein have been falling for 7 consecutive weeks, and last week fell by $2/t to $217/t FOB. At the same time, prices for French wheat fell by $4/t to 233 $/t, Romanian wheat – by $4/t to 220 $/t, American wheat – by $15/t to 213 $/t.

A good wheat harvest in importing countries will reduce the demand for wheat in the current season and restrain the price growth in exporting countries.

Tags: wheat, prices