£7 price of bread becomes key election issue in Lebanon amid economic crisis due to war in Ukraine

“I don’t do elections,” said 56-year-old Jouad Kansu, shaking his head in disdain as he spoke to i news from behind the till of his grocery shop in Basta, one of Beirut’s poorest neighbourhoods. “Because when you are feeling hungry, the Government doesn’t stand by your side; there is no help.”

Mr Kansu, along with the rest of Lebanon, face parliamentary elections on May 15 for the first time since the country spiralled into one of the world’s worst economiс depressions, which has pushed nearly three-quarters of the population into poverty and seen the value of the Lebanese pound by 90 per cent.

The vote is highly anticipated as a chance to weed out a corrupt political establishment, under whose watch the country fell into an immense financial and socio-economic crisis, which has upturned the lives of the six million-strong population.

Despite the opportunity to challenge the status quo, many Lebanese, like Mr Kansu, feel despondent at the political class’s ability to implement desperately needed reforms and financial support for a suffering population.

Locked out of life savings by a cash-strapped central bank in 2019, residents have dealt with widespread shortages of electricity, medicines and fuel, and watched their salaries become worthless in an economic freefall.

Now the Russian and Ukrainian war and subsequent surge in global food prices – which are nearly 13 per cent higher in March alone according to the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organisation – has brought a fresh bout of instability to the Middle East and North Africa. For a region heavily dependent on Black Sea grains and oils, it is yet another blow to battered economies and already sky-high inflation.

Lebanon imports 66 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine and 17 per cent from Russia. In neighbouring Syria, among the top ten most food insecure countries globally, the civil war has devastated the agriculture sector, leaving them at the mercy of imports travelling across the Black Sea. Egypt, the world’s biggest wheat importer, relies on Russia and Ukraine for 80 per cent of its imports.

For Lebanon, wheat scratches just the surface of the problem, explained Bujar Hoxha, Lebanon Director at NGO Care International. The war has meant other essential commodities are now harder to come by, as third countries, such as Algeria and Turkey, hold onto supplies, rather than exporting as before.

“We had two shipments for vegetable oil and sugar from Turkey, and it was halted because they want to use it for their domestic production. So, this makes the situation quite difficult, and much more dramatic.”

Mr Hoxha worries that by the summer, residents could face bread lines, as the conflict, alongside sanctions on Russia, continues to deplete trade capabilities.

During Ramadan, the price of wheat flour jumped 47 percent, Mr Hoxha said. The cost of a basic food basket, containing items such as canned beans, meat, and pasta, has surged 351 per cent year on year: “The highest in the region, by far.” Just this week, the World Bank approved a $150m loan to finance Lebanon’s wheat imports, designed to keep bread prices attainable for nine months.

Despite bread being a staple food for much of the Arab world, years of government economic mismanagement have left consumers struggling with price rises and turned it into a subsidised item.

As such, access to bread is symbolic for decent living standards, and in the past, threats of removing rationing or subsidies have quickly erupted into civil unrest in Lebanon and in Egypt, where the 1977 “Bread Riots” forced a government U-turn.

“In Lebanon there is not just a problem with wheat,” Mr Kansu said, as a mother came into the shop to purchase a bag of Arabic flatbread for 13,000 Lebanese pounds, or $8 (£6.97) at the country’s official exchange rate. Every customer inquires about the price, reflective of the volatile daily black market exchange rate, which dictates street pricing and leaves shop owners scrambling to keep up.

“The president, and president’s people, and the owners of companies, they are all thieves,” he continued, voicing widely held contempt for the establishment, who are universally blamed for the country’s pitiful state today.

As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags on, countries around the world have been racing to find alternative wheat sources from the likes of North America and India, at a higher cost. This has exacerbated the crisis in Lebanon, where the central bank was already struggling to afford wheat imports, resulted in closed bakeries, bare shelves, and protests.

Bashar Boubess, whose company Modern Mills of Lebanon processes large quantities of Ukrainian wheat, renowned for its superior quality and competitive price, told i the country’s weak financial position remains the most pressing threat to flour supplies.

“Many mills have imported wheat since the war in Ukraine, but it is not a matter of importing wheat, it is a matter of subsidising the wheat, of getting the money,” he said.

On top of financial woes, Lebanon’s only grain silos were destroyed in a mammoth explosion in Beirut’s port in 2020. The disaster is seen as another display of top-level negligence.

“Ukraine did not make the problem,” Mr Kansu said, of the rising cost of living and bread prices. “Lebanon’s leaders are the main problem. The sulta” he said, using the Arabic word for those in power, “they are the thieves.”

Tags: wheat, Black Sea, Syria, crisis, Lebanon, food prices, Ukraine, economiс depressions, Russia, poverty, Egypt, food insecure, price, Vegetable Oil