2023/24 Brazil Soybeans 48% Harvested vs. 43% Last Year

Rainfall last week in Brazil favored northern and southern areas which benefited late developing crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. It was somewhat dryer in central Brazil which helped soybean drydown but lowered moisture for safrinha corn early growth. The forecast is calling for continued chances of rainfall this week in northern Brazil with only light showers in central Brazil. Longer range, the Brazilian National Weather Service (Inmet) is calling for dryer than normal weather during March for much of Brazil.

The 2023/24 Brazil soybean harvest was 48% complete as of late last week compared to 43% last year. This represents an advance of 8% for the week. Harvesting is nearing completion in parts of Mato Grosso while it has yet to start in Rio Grande do Sul and parts of northeastern Brazil.

The 2023/24 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 145.0 million tons. The yields continue to be variable and the bright spot in Brazil this year will likely be the northeastern region of the country where good rainfall has benefited the soybeans even though they were planted later than normal. The one big state where the final yields are yet to be determined is Rio Grande do Sul. Farmers are concerned that the early yields might be disappointing while the later yield should be OK.

The soybean harvest pace slowed last week and it is now slightly behind last year’s harvest pace. The soybeans in Mato Grosso were 84.6% harvested as of late last week compared to 88.1% last year and 83,5% average. This represents an advance of 8.2% for the week. The harvest is basically complete in the mid-north and western regions of the state. The slowest harvest is in the southeastern region where 73% of the soybeans have been harvested.

Below is the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso (red line) from the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).

The Department of Rural Economics for the state of Parana (Deral) lowered their estimate of the state’s soybean crop 1.0 million tons last week to 18.2 million. With more than half of the soybeans harvested, Deral is now estimating that the 2023/24 soybean production will be down 19% compared to the 22.4 million tons produced in 2022/23.

The soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul are 8% germinating, 23% flowering, 63% filling pods, and 6% maturing according to Emater. The earlier maturing dryland soybeans seem to have been impacted the most by dry weather during January/February and farmers are worried that yields may be down 10-15%. The replanted soybeans are developing normally and the irrigated soybeans in the state have an excellent yield potential. If the weather continues to cooperate, the soybean yield in the state should be satisfactory.

WASDE will release their March estimate on Friday, March 8th and Conab will release their March estimate on Tuesday, March 12th.

Tags: harvest, Brazil, rainfall, estimate, soybeans, yields