2023/24 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 116.0 Million Tons

The 2023/24 Brazil corn estimate was left unchanged this week at 116.0 million tons.

Harvesting of the safrinha corn was 83% as of late last week compared to 47% last year This represents an increase of 9% for the week and the harvest continues at a record fast pace.

The safrinha corn in Mato Grosso was 96.6% harvested as of late last week compared to 83.8% last year and 86.2% average. This represents an advance of 6.6% for the week. Farmers in the municipality of Ipiranga do Norte in central Mato Grosso are satisfied with their 2023/24 safrinha corn yields, but low prices and high costs have cut into their margins. The vice-president of the Rural Union of Ipiranga do Norte reported that corn yields in the municipality are in the range of 125-126 sacks per hectare (119 to 120 bu/ac), which is an acceptable yield for the region.

The safrinha corn harvest ended earlier than normal this year because the soybean growth cycle was cut short by approximately 15 days due to drought. After the soybeans were harvested and the safrinha corn was planted, the rainfall amount returned to more normal levels leading to a good growing season for the safrinha corn.

The major concern for the producers are low prices and a high cost of production due to persistent insect infestations that required numerous insecticide applications that increased their costs even higher.

Spot prices for corn in the municipality are in the range of R$ 39.00 to R$ 40.00 per sack (approximately $3.25 to $3.35 per bushel), which makes it hard to cover production costs if you have average corn yields. If the corn yields are below average, farmers will be hard pressed to cover their costs.

Farmers in the state of Parana in southern Brazil had harvested 67% of their 2023/24 safrinha corn as of earlier last week according to the Department of Rural Economics (Deral). This represents an advance of only 1% for the week. The remainder of the corn is 3% filling grain and 97% maturing.

Harvest activity across the state was paralyzed last week due to rainfall which came too late in the growth cycle to improve corn yields. The remaining corn is rated as 21% poor, 36% average, and 43% good.

Deral reported that corn yields across the state are highly variable due to the erratic nature of the rainfall during the growing season. On a positive note, Deral indicated that farmers in the state had more success this growing season in controlling corn leafhoppers, especially in areas that did not encounter drought. Corn leafhoppers can spread a virus/bacteria that causes corn stunt disease. There is no cure once the plant is infected, so it is imperative that corn producers control corn leafhoppers to prevent infections.

The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul was 40.4% as of late last week compared to 4.4% last year and 13.2% average according to the Agriculture and Livestock Federation of Mato Grosso do Sul (Famasul). The remaining corn is rated 34.4% poor, 258% average, and 39.8% good. The lowest yields are from the southern region of the state with the highest yields from the northern region.

Famasul is estimating the safrinha corn acreage at 2.218 million hectares (5.47 million acres), which is down 5.8% compared to last year. The statewide safrinha corn yield is estimated at 86.3 sacks per hectare (82.3 bu/ac).

The Brazilian Associations of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) increased their estimate of the 2023/24 Brazil soybean crop 700,000 tons to 153.2 million tons. They left the estimate of Brazil’s soybean exports unchanged at 97.8 million tons and they left the domestic consumption unchanged at 54.5 million tons.

Tags: estimate, corn, Brazil, yields, acreage, safrinha corn, spot prices, harvested