2022/23 Brazil Corn Estimate Unchanged at 112.0 Million Tons

The 2022/23 Brazil soybean estimate was left unchanged this week at 120.0 million tons and I have a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward.

The safrinha corn in Brazil was 80% harvested as of late last week according to AgRural. This represents an advance of 7.6% for the week. The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso is 99.7% complete and in Parana, the safrinha corn harvest was 57% complete as of earlier last week.

Mato Grosso – The safrinha corn harvest in Mato Grosso was 99.7% as of late last week compared to 93.4% last year and 96.6% average according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).

Farmers in Mato Grosso are now preparing to plant their 2022/23 soybeans starting in mid-September. Weather models are split on their forecast for the weather during September. NOAA if forecasting average rainfall for September and above average rainfall for October. Imea is forecasting a dry and delayed start to soybean planting in the state due to the continued presence of La Nina.

Parana – According to the Department of Rural Economics (Feral). The corn in Parana was 57% harvested as of earlier last week and the remaining corn was rated 8% poor, 25% average, and 67% good. Deral reported that safrinha corn yields have been declining as the harvest has progressed. Yields of the later planted corn continue to be below initial expectations.

Deral is estimating that the 2021/22 corn production in Parana will decline 10% from their prior estimate of 16 million tons to their current estimate of 14.5 million tons and it may move lower in future estimates.

The corn analysts for Deral, Edmar Gervasio, explained that some of the reduction may be due to dry weather and light frosts, but most of the lower yields are due to damage caused by corn leafhoppers that spread the virus associated with corn stunting. He indicated that the production estimate may move lower by the end of August after Deral has completed a statewide evaluation of the safrinha corn yields. The Institute of Rural Development in Parana (IDR) estimates that corn leafhoppers were responsible for 60% of the safrinha corn yield reduction in 2022.

Sao Paulo – The state of Sao Paulo is expected to produce 4.8 million tons of corn from its two corn crops in 2021/22 according to the Institute of Agricultural Economics (IEA). This would represent an increase of 30% compared to last year. The statewide corn yield is estimated at 5,900 kg/ha (93.8 bu/ac) which is up 21.4% compared to last year. The safrinha corn was planted during the ideal planting window in January and the weather was beneficial during the critical reproductive phase. The safrinha corn production is estimated at 2.6 million tons, which represents an increase of 64% compared to last year.

Despite being 30% larger than last year, the 2021/22 corn crop will still be short of state’s domestic corn needs of 8 million tons. The deficit will have to be made up by bringing in corn from other states, which is a common occurrence in southern Brazil.

Author: Michael Cordonnier/Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc.

Tags: harvest, Brazil, weather, estimate, soybean, Production, yields, safrinha corn, estimates, corn leafhoppers